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GameLive Pros (Warning it's loooooooooooooooong winded)

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Wally all you have to do is pick winners. I hate to keep reminding you but you need to use your energy in finding and picking the winners and when you perfect this the price will not affect your play.

Today I picked Giants +3.5. If I lose this bet this is not going to be because the Pinny line didn't like me. It will be because the Giants didn't play good enough to win.
 
since the assumption is Pinnacle's line is more accurate, you should bet team X at RW.

Wally, can you tell which two bets you can make to assure a profit?

A books line is not some true probability. It is a handicap, and has to be somewhat in line with the perception of other better handicappers.
 
Pavy, for the most part what you just said is all I will ever be able to do. I do want to understand the other side though. It obviously works or these guys would not be so successful. If I can adapt at least some of what they use and incorporate it into what I am still learning about capping, while it won't put me on that higher level it might make me somewhat better.

I know it must be hard with someone like me who just isn't grasping it. I play around with you guys a lot but I am serious with these questions. I truly am trying to learn what you are giving.
 
wal66
Durito, I don't know what the hypothetical line would be in this scenario but let's assume it's -3.

I understand either book might have the different prices and the same line, I get that part but how can either team have a better chance of winning at one book over the other? That makes no sense. A team has the same chance of winning regardless of a price. The price isn't on the field, playing the game. A price doesn't fumble, a price doesn't return a punt for a touchdown. How does the price give me an advantage on a game?

I am Googling, I am reading Think Tank but I don't understand the concept. If I lose the game and I got a better price then I lose less, I understand that but I don't see how the price available gives me an edge on a team winning.
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I'm telling you that pinnacle has the fair line (this is generally true in practice, but this is just an exercise).

What happens in the game is largely irrelevant to what I am trying to teach you.
 
If you know the win % of a bet (and yes pinnacle's current implied % is likely going to be your best estimate of this barring learning how to model very well) you asses versus available prices to see if you have a bet with positive expectation.

If I know something will win 55% of the time it's a good bet at -110 (110/210 = 52.38% -- the breakeven pt on -110). It's not at good bet at -125 (125/225 = 55.55% breakeven) To pavy there is no difference there, to people with actual money that make real bets it's the difference between winning lots and losing lots. It don't matter whether you are handicapping, modeling, or just picking off #'s at square books.
 
Herman
What is the line on Pavy really hating Wally and just spewing this garbage to fuck with him?
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I'm wondering myself. But Pavy's been pretty consistent with his "philosophy" over the years... I think he's being serious. That kind of belief ("picking beats shopping/timing") is very common among non-pro bettors who don't keep a record of their bets. Once you start logging shit in Excel and play around with the odds ("what if I managed to get 5 cents better on every bet? How about 5 cents worse") the picture becomes much clearer.

If you have a steady paycheck elsewhere and bet a couple games here and there with your disposable income, you don't give a crap about your lifetime figure. You're just here for the pussy.
 
I know Rogatien. I remember trying to explain to him why he believed that. I followed his soccer plays for a while and he managed to bet "steam plays" before the steam in the overwhelming majority of cases, which is impressive. If he is up lifetime, it is probably because of that "naive" skill he has, not his ability to pick winners. Someone who bets the same plays after they've been pounded by the masses is most likely a lifetime loser.
 
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