conditional probability question

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pico

pico

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1) in a soccer game, if the total is under 2.5 goals, what is the probability of total goals to be even?

2) in the same game, if the total is over 2.5 goals, what is the probability of total goals to be even?

for question #1, the only possible outcomes are 0-0, 1-0, 2-0, 0-1, 1-1, 0-2
only 2 are odd total and 4 are even total. so the probability for question #1 should be 4/6 = 67%?

i assume the probability for question #2 is less than 50% because 2-1, and 1-2 are pretty common. just wondering if it is higher than 33%
 
You're missing some critical data, pico. You can't weigh each possibility (combination) with the same probability. The probability of 0-0 is not equivalent to the probability of 12-11.
 
Likewise, the probability of 2-0 is likely not equivalent to the probability of 0-2 unless the teams are each 50% to win the match. Assuming an efficient market, the over/under should close (unbiased with vig) at a 50% likelihood on each side.
 
Re question 1, your analysis to reach the conclusion of 67% seems simplistic to me. I mean, yes, 67% is the correct answer in terms of flat possibilities. However I feel sure that the probably of each of those possibilities are different. That would have to be factored into the calculation. I do not have any data on it to do that factoring but that's what I would need to come up with an answer I feel confident about.
 
Then again a higher resulting total may favor one particular side in the match. There are a lot of variables that are unaccounted for here.
 
Pico, I was not looking for odd/even probabilities but have done numerous exercises in trying to calculate "correct" odds for correct score betting based on ML odds and implied goals scored. The results I have come up with are not satisfactory and the variations from league to league are substantial.

The truth is that the Betfair market (generally 1.5% vig on matchday) for correct scores is just about the best guide you will get.
 
thanks.

from all the games i watched, even totals seems to occur more often than odd totals. all the draws are even. usually a team is up an goal, the losing team will try to level it out and give out an goal. i see quiet a lot 3-1, 2-0 games where the last goal is scored within the final 3 minutes or the stoppage time.

odd even bets in soccer is like baccarat, but i think even has higher chance of winning than banker bet in baccarat. picking bunch of random games and bet even is a fun way to pass the time. you have a bet on the side, and small bets on even/odd will make any game more interesting. the good part about soccer is it is over in 2 hours. it is like going to the casino, but you seems to have more control over the bet (as suppose to flip of cards at the baccarat table).

i wish some books start to offer even/odd totals for mlb. with that you have to watch the game until the last out even though it is a blowout :D
 
on the flip side if you have an even bet and it is tied 1-1...someone scored a goal within the last 10 min, you know your bet is done. 2-1 comes out a lot.
 
pico
odd even bets in soccer is like baccarat, but i think even has higher chance of winning than banker bet in baccarat. picking bunch of random games and bet even is a fun way to pass the time. you have a bet on the side, and small bets on even/odd will make any game more interesting. the good part about soccer is it is over in 2 hours. it is like going to the casino, but you seems to have more control over the bet (as suppose to flip of cards at the baccarat table).
Click to expand...

:yes::yes::yes: on the post minus the bold.

There're some games that have more action on the o/e than on the AH or 1x2.
 
I don't have a soccer database.

But I would think that someone with one could answer this question quite easily, by simply looking at 1000's of past results.
 
If we take the EPL as an example them so far this and last season, just under 53% of games have had an even total. Pico's, basic summation is more or less correct in that over 71% of games with two goals or less have an even total.

As I mentioned earlier though there is no usable pattern which hold from one league to the next which connects the implied number of goals scored to correct score (and by extension odd/even) odds.
 
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