wal66
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Yeah, I thought I was just ghost writing for some guy who would edit and put his own spin to them.
Bayer, since he credited me with the articles I doubt he is the guy you are paying. Also I guess it makes it alright to post them over again publicly as well. So here they are except for the first 2 which I sent via text.
Casper, I've unintentionally super-jacked your thread.
Arizona St at Utah
It’s rare for me to venture into the Pac 10, sorry I mean Pac 12 to make a play. I’m just not comfortable with the style of play in the conference for the most part. It’s not because I don’t love offense because I most certainly do. It’s more to do with the inconsistent or lack of defense played in most cases which makes it much more difficult to judge the games fairly. I don’t know that, that isn’t still the case but for reasons that are a mystery to even myself I found a game and more importantly a line that I have to take a chance on this week.
Arizona St 4-1 (SU) and 1-4 (ATS) head to Utah 2-2 (SU) and 1-3 (ATS) for a football contest. This is the inaugural season for Utah in the Pac 12 after leaving the Mountain West.
The Utes enter this game off a loss at Washington losing 31-14 as a 10 point favorite. Starting QB Jordan Wynn injured his shoulder in that game and is expected to not play this week. Junior QB Jon Hays is expected to get the start in his place. For me this information both confirms my play and at the same time makes me wonder about the line. I will get to that in a minute though.
ASU and Utah have not played each other since 1993 so even if you don’t generally use Head to Head as a parameter for measuring a game it really wouldn’t be a factor in this game anyway. A factor that can be a measuring stick is common opponents and both teams have played USC this season. ASU beat USC 43-22 at home while Utah lost 23-14 at Southern Cal. While it’s true that the comparison isn’t exactly fair because one was on the road and the other was at home it is still something. Personally for me common opponents are much more valuable in capping a game than head to head.
I have watched a little from both of these teams this season and there are good and bad on both squads but I am slightly more impressed with ASU both in the quarterback position and on defense. I know, I made a joke about Pac 12 and defense earlier but I’m speaking in relative terms at this point. I’m not saying defense as in Alabama or LSU, I’m comparing apples to apples even if these apples are filled with brown spots and worm holes.
Home advantage goes to Utah but QB play, receivers, and overall defense and common opponent goes to ASU.
Play: -4
Oklahoma at Texas
Ahhhhh, the Red River Rivalry. I do love rivalry games. Even if you’re not a fan of certain teams of even certain conferences as a football fan you can appreciate tradition and rivalries.
This game hasn’t been decided by more than 10 points since 2006, albeit there was a 10 point win by Texas in 2008. So a line set at 9.5 or 10 depending on where you look kind of makes you wonder. On the surface you think Texas just isn’t the same Texas team and while that may be true you forget that they are 4-0 coming into this game. Your mind tends to think about how they struggled at home against BYU but you forget that they were still searching for a starting QB and the fact that BYU has played tough against Texas in the past. Your mind also automatically goes to the Oklahoma/FSU game earlier this season. That was an absolute brutally physical game throughout and it was a national game so it is burnt into our memories.
There is no doubt that Oklahoma is a top team in the country and if you know what you are watching when you watch the games you cannot deny that Landry Jones is destined for the NFL. The Sooners have physical players on defense and they are well coached.
Also true is the fact that this is not the same Texas team of a couple years ago but this is a much improved team to last year and last year we witnessed a 16-13 win by the Sooner’s.
I do think that Oklahoma wins this game and I will admit the potential for a blowout or comfortable win is possible but I’m not sold on it. In fact I am fairly confident that Texas will keep this game close or perhaps Oklahoma will via mistakes. In either case I think Texas keeps this game within a touchdown.
Play: Texas +9.5
Florida State at Duke
Wow. The Seminoles entered this season with high expectations and now they are just looking to save their season. When they played Oklahoma it was honestly one of the most physical games I had seen in a very long time. Both teams loaded with talent, in front of a national crowd put on a great game. Oklahoma was clearly the better team that night even before the Nole’s starting QB EJ Manuel had to leave the game but FSU definitely made their presence known.
Florida St followed the loss to the Sooner’s up with a road loss at Clemson. Excuses could be made and legitimately so that they were still banged up form the Sooner’s game and playing a freshman QB Clint Tricklett on the road. Also true is the fact that Clemson has a very solid team and were looking to establish themselves as a contender for the ACC this year.
In both of those losses Seminole fans could at least take resolve in the fact that both teams were better than average teams as well as injuries to the Nole’s. What no-one in support of FSU and quite possibly even your average football fan could have predicted was that Florida State would lose a third straight game and to Wake Forest of all teams. I don’t mean any disrespect to Wake Forest but come on!
So now this week FSU is on the road again at 3-2 Duke. This is an improved Duke team and FSU is a walking wounded both mentally and physically, so do the Devils have a chance?
There is a better chance that gas prices will return to $1 per gallon than the Duke Blue Devils beating FSU this weekend. More possible but still less probable is that Duke will cover the 13.5 points as well.
The ACC Title won’t reside in Tallahassee this year but the season is not over for the Nole’s. There is still time to save their season and more importantly their pride. I expect them to set the tone early here and go on to an easy cover. Looking for a 45-17 type game this week.
Play: Florida State -13.5
Utah St at Fresno St
There are certain teams that always seem to throw me off. I bet on them and they lose, I bet against them and they win. Utah St is becoming one of those teams. The sample size isn’t large enough yet to write them off but if I fail with them again this week I may be done with them for good.
A team that I should have written off a long time ago is Fresno St. The previous 2 seasons I have had terrible luck trying to predict how this team will perform.
So if I have two teams playing one another that I have a poor track record with, why am I even bothering with them you ask? Undoubtedly I like self abuse.
Seriously, I like the match-up here. If you consider a home team is generally awarded roughly 3 points for home field advantage then Utah St is theoretically favored by 6.5 here. When you look at the fact that Utah St’s scoring average is 42.6 and Fresno St allows an average of 36.5 ppg, I like that. Then you see that Fresno St average score is 26.7 ppg and Utah St allows an average of 28 ppg, I like that as well. Throw in a slight edge in special teams and yards gained and I like Utah St all the more.
I don’t expect Utah st to follow up this game like the win last week over Wyoming 63-19 but I do look for them to have another decent output. I can see Utah St winning this game in the neighborhood of 33-20 which gives us a nice little cover.
Play: Utah St -3.5
Texas A&M at Iowa St
The Aggies enter this game after having maybe the best complete game of their season so far. While scoring 55 points against Baylor may not impress anyone only allowing RG-3 and Baylor to score 28 is kind of impressive. Especially when you take into consideration how Texas A&M have allowed points practically unchallenged in 2nd halves of games this year.
I like them to continue the roll this week on the road at Iowa St. as well.. Now I won’t get overly involved with statistical analysis here because this is more of a feel play. I will tell you that the Aggies beat Iowa St last year 35-10 and while the college landscape does change often this is a better A&M team than last years version. They are better and they are playing much improved since the collapse against Arkansas.
Texas A&M has 2 losses on the season and as mentioned they lost to Arkansas by simply failing to suit up for the 2nd half after just losing to Oklahoma St 30-29 the week prior in the exact same fashion. Since those losses they have beaten Texas Tech and the afore mentioned Baylor and have looked very strong in doing so.
The Aggies are laying 20 as of this writing to an Iowa St team coming off a blowout loss to Missouri and riding a 3-game losing streak. I generally try to stay away from teams on more than 2-game losing streaks but I’m making an exception here. I like the Aggies to roll.
Play: Texas A&M -20 (good to -24)
SMU at Southern Miss
Here we have a match-up of identical 5-1 (SU) and 4-2 (ATS) teams. The Mustangs and Golden Eagles haven’t played since 2008 so there are no recent comparisons to go on here. If you look closer to just how identical these two teams are you will see that SMU is coring and average of 33.7 ppg and Southern Miss 38.7 ppg. SMU is allowing and average of 20 ppg and Southern Miss is allowing 22 ppg.
Both teams have an impressive win on their schedule, SMU beating TCU on the road and Southern Miss downing Virginia also on the road. The only significant difference is in who they have lost too. SMU lost at Texas A&M 46-14 and Southern Miss lost at Marshall 26-20.
So why on earth would I attempt to pick a winner between teams that are so close?
I want so bad to tell you I have some inside information. You know the old. I know a guy who dated a girl that is now seeing the cousin of the washroom attendant to the team kind of inside info. Alas, that’s not the case. In fact I honestly don’t have a solid reason other than I simply like one of these teams right now to win this game. Call it a hunch, call it blind faith, call it crazy but I like the Mustangs on the road to not just cover but win the game outright.
That’s my story and I’m sticking to it.
Play: SMU +133
Bayer, since he credited me with the articles I doubt he is the guy you are paying. Also I guess it makes it alright to post them over again publicly as well. So here they are except for the first 2 which I sent via text.
Casper, I've unintentionally super-jacked your thread.
Arizona St at Utah
It’s rare for me to venture into the Pac 10, sorry I mean Pac 12 to make a play. I’m just not comfortable with the style of play in the conference for the most part. It’s not because I don’t love offense because I most certainly do. It’s more to do with the inconsistent or lack of defense played in most cases which makes it much more difficult to judge the games fairly. I don’t know that, that isn’t still the case but for reasons that are a mystery to even myself I found a game and more importantly a line that I have to take a chance on this week.
Arizona St 4-1 (SU) and 1-4 (ATS) head to Utah 2-2 (SU) and 1-3 (ATS) for a football contest. This is the inaugural season for Utah in the Pac 12 after leaving the Mountain West.
The Utes enter this game off a loss at Washington losing 31-14 as a 10 point favorite. Starting QB Jordan Wynn injured his shoulder in that game and is expected to not play this week. Junior QB Jon Hays is expected to get the start in his place. For me this information both confirms my play and at the same time makes me wonder about the line. I will get to that in a minute though.
ASU and Utah have not played each other since 1993 so even if you don’t generally use Head to Head as a parameter for measuring a game it really wouldn’t be a factor in this game anyway. A factor that can be a measuring stick is common opponents and both teams have played USC this season. ASU beat USC 43-22 at home while Utah lost 23-14 at Southern Cal. While it’s true that the comparison isn’t exactly fair because one was on the road and the other was at home it is still something. Personally for me common opponents are much more valuable in capping a game than head to head.
I have watched a little from both of these teams this season and there are good and bad on both squads but I am slightly more impressed with ASU both in the quarterback position and on defense. I know, I made a joke about Pac 12 and defense earlier but I’m speaking in relative terms at this point. I’m not saying defense as in Alabama or LSU, I’m comparing apples to apples even if these apples are filled with brown spots and worm holes.
Home advantage goes to Utah but QB play, receivers, and overall defense and common opponent goes to ASU.
Play: -4
Oklahoma at Texas
Ahhhhh, the Red River Rivalry. I do love rivalry games. Even if you’re not a fan of certain teams of even certain conferences as a football fan you can appreciate tradition and rivalries.
This game hasn’t been decided by more than 10 points since 2006, albeit there was a 10 point win by Texas in 2008. So a line set at 9.5 or 10 depending on where you look kind of makes you wonder. On the surface you think Texas just isn’t the same Texas team and while that may be true you forget that they are 4-0 coming into this game. Your mind tends to think about how they struggled at home against BYU but you forget that they were still searching for a starting QB and the fact that BYU has played tough against Texas in the past. Your mind also automatically goes to the Oklahoma/FSU game earlier this season. That was an absolute brutally physical game throughout and it was a national game so it is burnt into our memories.
There is no doubt that Oklahoma is a top team in the country and if you know what you are watching when you watch the games you cannot deny that Landry Jones is destined for the NFL. The Sooners have physical players on defense and they are well coached.
Also true is the fact that this is not the same Texas team of a couple years ago but this is a much improved team to last year and last year we witnessed a 16-13 win by the Sooner’s.
I do think that Oklahoma wins this game and I will admit the potential for a blowout or comfortable win is possible but I’m not sold on it. In fact I am fairly confident that Texas will keep this game close or perhaps Oklahoma will via mistakes. In either case I think Texas keeps this game within a touchdown.
Play: Texas +9.5
Florida State at Duke
Wow. The Seminoles entered this season with high expectations and now they are just looking to save their season. When they played Oklahoma it was honestly one of the most physical games I had seen in a very long time. Both teams loaded with talent, in front of a national crowd put on a great game. Oklahoma was clearly the better team that night even before the Nole’s starting QB EJ Manuel had to leave the game but FSU definitely made their presence known.
Florida St followed the loss to the Sooner’s up with a road loss at Clemson. Excuses could be made and legitimately so that they were still banged up form the Sooner’s game and playing a freshman QB Clint Tricklett on the road. Also true is the fact that Clemson has a very solid team and were looking to establish themselves as a contender for the ACC this year.
In both of those losses Seminole fans could at least take resolve in the fact that both teams were better than average teams as well as injuries to the Nole’s. What no-one in support of FSU and quite possibly even your average football fan could have predicted was that Florida State would lose a third straight game and to Wake Forest of all teams. I don’t mean any disrespect to Wake Forest but come on!
So now this week FSU is on the road again at 3-2 Duke. This is an improved Duke team and FSU is a walking wounded both mentally and physically, so do the Devils have a chance?
There is a better chance that gas prices will return to $1 per gallon than the Duke Blue Devils beating FSU this weekend. More possible but still less probable is that Duke will cover the 13.5 points as well.
The ACC Title won’t reside in Tallahassee this year but the season is not over for the Nole’s. There is still time to save their season and more importantly their pride. I expect them to set the tone early here and go on to an easy cover. Looking for a 45-17 type game this week.
Play: Florida State -13.5
Utah St at Fresno St
There are certain teams that always seem to throw me off. I bet on them and they lose, I bet against them and they win. Utah St is becoming one of those teams. The sample size isn’t large enough yet to write them off but if I fail with them again this week I may be done with them for good.
A team that I should have written off a long time ago is Fresno St. The previous 2 seasons I have had terrible luck trying to predict how this team will perform.
So if I have two teams playing one another that I have a poor track record with, why am I even bothering with them you ask? Undoubtedly I like self abuse.
Seriously, I like the match-up here. If you consider a home team is generally awarded roughly 3 points for home field advantage then Utah St is theoretically favored by 6.5 here. When you look at the fact that Utah St’s scoring average is 42.6 and Fresno St allows an average of 36.5 ppg, I like that. Then you see that Fresno St average score is 26.7 ppg and Utah St allows an average of 28 ppg, I like that as well. Throw in a slight edge in special teams and yards gained and I like Utah St all the more.
I don’t expect Utah st to follow up this game like the win last week over Wyoming 63-19 but I do look for them to have another decent output. I can see Utah St winning this game in the neighborhood of 33-20 which gives us a nice little cover.
Play: Utah St -3.5
Texas A&M at Iowa St
The Aggies enter this game after having maybe the best complete game of their season so far. While scoring 55 points against Baylor may not impress anyone only allowing RG-3 and Baylor to score 28 is kind of impressive. Especially when you take into consideration how Texas A&M have allowed points practically unchallenged in 2nd halves of games this year.
I like them to continue the roll this week on the road at Iowa St. as well.. Now I won’t get overly involved with statistical analysis here because this is more of a feel play. I will tell you that the Aggies beat Iowa St last year 35-10 and while the college landscape does change often this is a better A&M team than last years version. They are better and they are playing much improved since the collapse against Arkansas.
Texas A&M has 2 losses on the season and as mentioned they lost to Arkansas by simply failing to suit up for the 2nd half after just losing to Oklahoma St 30-29 the week prior in the exact same fashion. Since those losses they have beaten Texas Tech and the afore mentioned Baylor and have looked very strong in doing so.
The Aggies are laying 20 as of this writing to an Iowa St team coming off a blowout loss to Missouri and riding a 3-game losing streak. I generally try to stay away from teams on more than 2-game losing streaks but I’m making an exception here. I like the Aggies to roll.
Play: Texas A&M -20 (good to -24)
SMU at Southern Miss
Here we have a match-up of identical 5-1 (SU) and 4-2 (ATS) teams. The Mustangs and Golden Eagles haven’t played since 2008 so there are no recent comparisons to go on here. If you look closer to just how identical these two teams are you will see that SMU is coring and average of 33.7 ppg and Southern Miss 38.7 ppg. SMU is allowing and average of 20 ppg and Southern Miss is allowing 22 ppg.
Both teams have an impressive win on their schedule, SMU beating TCU on the road and Southern Miss downing Virginia also on the road. The only significant difference is in who they have lost too. SMU lost at Texas A&M 46-14 and Southern Miss lost at Marshall 26-20.
So why on earth would I attempt to pick a winner between teams that are so close?
I want so bad to tell you I have some inside information. You know the old. I know a guy who dated a girl that is now seeing the cousin of the washroom attendant to the team kind of inside info. Alas, that’s not the case. In fact I honestly don’t have a solid reason other than I simply like one of these teams right now to win this game. Call it a hunch, call it blind faith, call it crazy but I like the Mustangs on the road to not just cover but win the game outright.
That’s my story and I’m sticking to it.
Play: SMU +133
