Especially in the final moves.
I'd like to discuss this if anyone is open to talking about line movement.
I would think that the final move might not necessarily be the sharpest, or at least have the interest in the outcome of the bet.
Throughout the day, the market is absorbing information, reacting to bets, and adjusting prices accordingly. However, at what point is there really no new information? Subjectively, I would think the end point for information could basically be after the pitcher has warmed up, so 5-10 minutes before gametime?
Why then is there still movement in the line after we've basically reached the end point for new info? Anyone watching SBRodds 5-10 minutes before opening pitch sees lots of line movement, so certainly lots of bets are being made.
There could be two cases: The first one is that the super sharpz sit on their hands and wait till the very end to hammer bets home. If this was true, then why not make the same bet at the following points in time if you liked the number (I've listed a reason why after the semi colon)
1) Openers; the reason is low limits
2) Once limits are raised; perhaps still waiting for lineups
3) Once lineups are released; perhaps waiting for warmups?
4) Once warmups are done
It would seem like waiting till the very end to make a bet with full information might not be optimal, because you could lose a line you like if someone jumps in before you.
One could argue that placing a bet is not an instantaneous process, so perhaps these movements are reflecting the lag it takes between making a pick as soon as you have full information and actually placing a wager. Fair enough.
However, I've started to see end line movement the way I view stock market action at the end of the day. It's not necssarily indicative of the market, its just indicative of the position the heavy day traders took. If you shorted the market during the day, you'd cover your shorts at the end of the trading day to lock in profits. So what looks like a stock price increase is actually just someone closing out their counter position.
Perhaps the same principle can be applied to a moneyline and an arber. Someone bet X on the whitesox thinking the line will move in their favor. When it does, buy back the position on the Tigers to lock in the profit. I would also think that big time arbers are playing with enough money to place limit bets and move the market.
So - to summarize:
Is last line movement related to the changing value of the line or is it an external reason to the market, such as someone closing out an arb?
Of course, there's not one rule for every line move, but is there a general statement that can be made?
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