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C, D, MF, et Al. CAUTION! LONG POST

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NCAAB is a tough market to play "off numbers" if you're inexperienced. Between offshore and Vegas, dozens of books move on air on relatively small bets. When you can move the number at a few different books for around $10k and can spread out $40k+ on the other side at the books that follow, it makes for a very easy and profitable market to manipulate.
 
MonkeyF0cker
NCAAB is a tough market to play "off numbers" if you're inexperienced. Between offshore and Vegas, dozens of books move on air on relatively small bets. When you can move the number at a few different books for around $10k and can spread out $40k+ on the other side at the books that follow, it makes for a very easy and profitable market to manipulate.
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Thanks for the feedback. I am not experienced enough therefore I came looking for advice.

So if I give you the opportunity to bet with lines from last night at any point during the next day, you do what?
 
A wise man said earlier in this thread to prepare for variance. I understand variance, but my friend does not. It's been like pitching a new idea to a company that you know will have long term success but has the potential to fail for a stretch at any time. Deciding what is a "worthy" play and what is not, is what I am trying to determine.
 
Thanks MF. I guess I will have to consider laying off the NCAAB for a little bit. I know you said that the moves might be meaningless in the lower volume sports, but it just seems that there has to be a way to beat it when you have a 2-4 pt. edge over the current lines. Has to be a way to fine tune it to make it profitable as well.

Anyhow,what would you suggest as an point change in NFL spreads and totals to trigger a play?
 
Use Pinny's dropdowns just before close and play anything that gives you an edge for NFL.

You're certainly betting edges overall in NCAAB, but they may not be as big as you think.

The thing is, even if you have a 60% expectation... After 14 plays, you have a 1 in 3 chance of losing money. After 100 plays, you have a 1 in 15 chance of losing money. And at the rate you're going, you won't have 100 plays until next Christmas.

Counter variance with volume.
 
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