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djiddish98

djiddish98

The Dunk
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Jun 6, 2010
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I like to build my bracket around odds and spreads.

Pinnacle has "Will they make the sweet 16" odds for most of the top seeded teams - granted, the limits are small, but I think this could be of interest to bracket builders looking to get some insight into second round potential lines.

Wisconsin "No" -194 sticks out.
 
Kansas State is -246 to not make the sweet 16. So who are you picking from that pod?
 
Herman
Kansas State is -246 to not make the sweet 16. So who are you picking from that pod?
Click to expand...

The south east seems the most wide open IMO (that portion of the bracket that everyone has red) so I might as well take my risk and go utah st. beating belmont.

The more I look over these numbers, the less valuable they seem, but I'm still crunching.
 
3 units on Ark Lil Rock +4 and +3.5 tonight.
 
So here's a quick rush job of what I think the expected 2nd round ML is going to be. By taking the no-vig odds of the will make sweet 16 prop, as well as first round money lines, I think we can get a good estimate.

I wonder how these compare to log5 analysis.

Also, I think it's a bit odd that potential games don't necessarily matchup - IE Arizona being 138 and texas being -253 in a potential second round. I face off. Perhaps the math is wrong, or it could be the spread could potentially be occupied by memphis / oakland's hypothetical ML

Team 2ND RD % 2ND RD ML

6. Xavier 38.48% 160
5. Arizona 41.96% 138
5. Vanderbilt 43.73% 129
5. Kansas State 54.54% -120
6. St. John's 54.83% -121
3. BYU 55.49% -125
4. Wisconsin 56.79% -131
3. Connecticut 61.31% -158
4. Kentucky 66.32% -197
2. North Carolina 67.97% -212
3. Syracuse 68.74% -220
3. Purdue 68.84% -221
2. Florida 68.97% -222
4. Louisville 70.51% -239
4. Texas 71.70% -253
2. Notre Dame 73.71% -280
2. San Diego St 74.43% -291
 
Last edited:
harvard/ok st under 132.5 and 132
7 units
 
i like this stuff dj.


keep it coming
 
Also interesting is that St. John's has a better chance of beating BYU than Gonzaga.
 
Herman
i don't think that's right
Click to expand...

Current ML for St Johns is -118, which I converted to a no-vig % of 52.84% (gonzaga is +107).

St John's is +237 to make it to 16 / -267 not to, which I convert to a no-vig % of 28.97% to advance to sweet 16.

28.97% / 52.84% = 54.82%, which is higher than their round 1 ml

However, I did make the conversion formulas from scratch, as opposed to using some older formulas I have, so my no-vig conversion might be off.
 
rolling with Belmont or utah st. might not be bad if you want to advance a high seeded team and break out of the chalk.

Prob of Wisc or Utah St. advancing = 66.5%
Prob of Kentucky or Wva advancing = 86%
Prob of Texas or Arizona advancing = 87.57%
Prob of Louisville or Vandy advancing = 82.72%

Might also advance Gonzaga to the sweet 16 in this region, if you're looking for high risk / high reward.
 
FOk all these numbers
can we break down to 1/2 jrunk retard analysis/..
thanks, your friend , dat nigga earl
 
Consolidated "Who will make it farther odds" - For example, Arizona is -163 (with vig) to advance further than Vandy.

Arizona
Vanderbilt -163
West Virginia -153
Kansas State -132

Butler
Michigan -121
UNLV 102
George Mason 103

BYU
Connecticut 110
Syracuse 159
Purdue 200

Cincinnati
Xavier -101
St. John's 100
Georgetown 124

Connecticut
BYU -129
Syracuse 146
Purdue 172

Duke
Pittsburgh -150
Ohio State -102
Kansas 112

Florida
North Carolina -112
Notre Dame -102
San Diego State 132

Florida State
Georgia -235
Penn State -140
Michigan State 116

George Mason
Michigan -120
Butler -120
UNLV -108

Georgetown
Xavier -161
Cincinnati -145
St. John's 112

Georgia
Penn State 145
Florida State 197
Michigan State 232

Illinois
Villanova -101
Old Dominion 116
Tennessee 119

Kansas
Pittsburgh -146
Duke -131
Ohio State -109

Kansas State
Vanderbilt -130
West Virginia -128
Arizona 113

Kentucky
Wisconsin -194
Louisville -146
Texas -125

Louisville
Wisconsin -177
Texas 118
Kentucky 125

Michigan
George Mason 103
Butler 104
UNLV 121

Michigan State
Georgia -281
Penn State -163
Florida State -135

North Carolina
Florida -104
Notre Dame -102
San Diego State 131

Notre Dame
North Carolina -114
Florida -114
San Diego State 121

Ohio State
Pittsburgh -163
Duke -114
Kansas -107

Old Dominion
Tennessee -139
Illinois -135
Villanova -119

Penn State
Georgia -171
Florida State 120
Michigan State 139

Pittsburgh
Kansas 125
Duke 128
Ohio State 139


Purdue
BYU -239
Connecticut -204
Syracuse -153

San Diego State
Florida -155
North Carolina -154
Notre Dame -142

St. John's
Georgetown -131
Xavier -127
Cincinnati -117

Syracuse
BYU -188
Connecticut -172
Purdue 131

Temple
UCLA -150
Texas A&M -142
Washington 169

Tennessee
Illinois -139
Villanova -111
Old Dominion 119

Texas
Wisconsin -230
Louisville -138
Kentucky 107

Texas A&M
UCLA -112
Temple 121
Washington 206

UCLA
Texas A&M -104
Temple 128
Washington 205

UNLV (Tied with George Mason)
Michigan -142
Butler -119
George Mason -108

Vanderbilt
West Virginia -101
Kansas State 111
Arizona 139

Villanova
Illinois -115
Tennessee -105
Old Dominion 102

Washington
Texas A&M -247
UCLA -245
Temple -200

West Virginia
Vanderbilt -116
Kansas State 110
Arizona 131

Wisconsin
Louisville 150
Kentucky 164
Texas 193

Xavier
Cincinnati -115
St. John's 109
Georgetown 137
 
Last edited:
WTF, how is UGA favored to make farther????
that makes no sense to my feeble mind
 
mmike032
WTF, how is UGA favored to make farther????
that makes no sense to my feeble mind
Click to expand...

Your instincts are right - UGA is the worst 10 seed - it's dog odds to make it farther than any of the other 10s.
 
St. John's props have moved against them.
 
How's this for confusing:

Cincy slightly favored to advance further than St. John's; St. John's slightly favored to advance further than Gtown; Gtown heavily favored to advance further than Xavier; Xavier slightly favored to advance further than Cincy.


Cincinnati
St. John's -110
Xavier -104
Georgetown 124

Georgetown
Xavier -161
Cincinnati -145
St. John's -101

Xavier
Cincinnati -112
St. John's -101
Georgetown 137


St. John's
Georgetown -116
Xavier -115
Cincinnati -106
 
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