RogueScholar
I love you, Chord!
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I just wrote this for the daily plays thread over at Peep's. I know most of you will probably see it there, but for those who otherwise wouldn't...
Andy Roddick +253 (5Dimes Reduced) vs. Rafael Nadal
Match starts at 2005h GMT, O2 Arena (Indoor Hard Court), London, England
Televised Live on The Tennis Channel
It may seem counter-intuitive to bet against the world's current No. 1 tennis player, playing in the prestigious Tour Finals with his best seeding ever, especially after taking a week off to rest at the expense of appearing in the Paris Masters. However, if you look beneath those very obvious details, there are reasons why A-Rod has a better shot to win this match than the line implies.
Nadal took the tennis world by storm this year, wresting the No. 1 ranking from Roger Federer and winning three of the year's four Grand Slams, including the U.S. Open to complete a Career Grand Slam despite his previous struggles with hard courts. He did this largely on the back of a retooled service motion, which while wildly successful, appears to place more strain on the southpaw's dominant shoulder. We know from Rafa's past comments about the excessive length of the current tennis season (being shortened by 2 weeks in 2012) and the fact that he played every Masters event this year except Paris last week that he may already be looking ahead to the Aussie Open a scant two months away. Rafa's played 83 tennis matches in the past year, second most of any player, and that makes fatigue a very real concern along with the current injury. Here's a quote from Rafa's media session in London, addressing his atrocious form at this event last year, where he lost all three Round Robin matches in straight sets on this surface:
If Rafa's shoulder doesn't allow him to serve as flawlessly as he did at the U.S. Open, he will once again be vulnerable to the hard court aficionados, of which Andy Roddick is one. The last time these two met was at this year's Miami Masters, on a court which mimics the O2 surface perfectly, both being rated in the 70th percentile of hard courts on tour by speed. Roddick won that match on his way to winning the title there this year, his most recent Masters Series title. He also had the benefit of seeing Jurgen Melzer defeat Rafa last month in Shanghai with aggressive shot-making and attention to attacking the Nadal forehand with heavy pace.
While A-Rod has been criticized for passive play in the last month, he appears determined to redeem his worst season in recent memory by a strong performance here at the Finals, an event he had to miss entirely last year due to injury. The best chance to upset Rafa in London will be this first match tomorrow, before he is able to adjust to the surface and get his service motion back in shape. Roddick has all the tools to do so, he's proven that his shots can defeat the world No. 1 on a court rated at this speed.
Finally, Roddick's tour earnings are over $1mil lower than last year, and he slipped out of the ATP Top 10 for the first time since 2002. He knows that he has fewer matches ahead of him than are already in the books, and a crack at this $4.5mil purse would be a huge boost to one of the game's aging veterans as he continues to slip further from the pinnacle of his game.
Andy Roddick +253 (5Dimes Reduced) vs. Rafael Nadal
Match starts at 2005h GMT, O2 Arena (Indoor Hard Court), London, England
Televised Live on The Tennis Channel
It may seem counter-intuitive to bet against the world's current No. 1 tennis player, playing in the prestigious Tour Finals with his best seeding ever, especially after taking a week off to rest at the expense of appearing in the Paris Masters. However, if you look beneath those very obvious details, there are reasons why A-Rod has a better shot to win this match than the line implies.
Nadal took the tennis world by storm this year, wresting the No. 1 ranking from Roger Federer and winning three of the year's four Grand Slams, including the U.S. Open to complete a Career Grand Slam despite his previous struggles with hard courts. He did this largely on the back of a retooled service motion, which while wildly successful, appears to place more strain on the southpaw's dominant shoulder. We know from Rafa's past comments about the excessive length of the current tennis season (being shortened by 2 weeks in 2012) and the fact that he played every Masters event this year except Paris last week that he may already be looking ahead to the Aussie Open a scant two months away. Rafa's played 83 tennis matches in the past year, second most of any player, and that makes fatigue a very real concern along with the current injury. Here's a quote from Rafa's media session in London, addressing his atrocious form at this event last year, where he lost all three Round Robin matches in straight sets on this surface:
If Rafa's shoulder doesn't allow him to serve as flawlessly as he did at the U.S. Open, he will once again be vulnerable to the hard court aficionados, of which Andy Roddick is one. The last time these two met was at this year's Miami Masters, on a court which mimics the O2 surface perfectly, both being rated in the 70th percentile of hard courts on tour by speed. Roddick won that match on his way to winning the title there this year, his most recent Masters Series title. He also had the benefit of seeing Jurgen Melzer defeat Rafa last month in Shanghai with aggressive shot-making and attention to attacking the Nadal forehand with heavy pace.
While A-Rod has been criticized for passive play in the last month, he appears determined to redeem his worst season in recent memory by a strong performance here at the Finals, an event he had to miss entirely last year due to injury. The best chance to upset Rafa in London will be this first match tomorrow, before he is able to adjust to the surface and get his service motion back in shape. Roddick has all the tools to do so, he's proven that his shots can defeat the world No. 1 on a court rated at this speed.
Finally, Roddick's tour earnings are over $1mil lower than last year, and he slipped out of the ATP Top 10 for the first time since 2002. He knows that he has fewer matches ahead of him than are already in the books, and a crack at this $4.5mil purse would be a huge boost to one of the game's aging veterans as he continues to slip further from the pinnacle of his game.
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