2nd Half Lines - Books Practice Risk Management

[Boner_18]

Saw a video today from SSAC where a vegas bookmaker said something that piqued my interest. Before y'all sharps laugh at me answer me this. Are there instance where a 2nd half line is more for a book's risk management and thus inefficient to the actual outcome? What sports? How big of a game ($$ wise) must it be for a book to care about this?

Assuming the closing line is efficient (isn't that at the center of what y'all do with line shopping?) can't you just reverse engineer what the 2nd half line should be and thus see when the book is risk managing (barring some injury or other change in circumstances)?

You may now commence the laughter.

 

[Blitty]

Bone, why you ignoring my texts?

 

[Boner_18]

oh shit. never took phone out of bedroom.

 

[choo]

Assuming the closing line is efficient (isn't that at the center of what y'all do with line shopping?)

price shopping is common sense it has nothing to do with market dynamics

 

[Potato]

2H betting is a death sentence.

 

[Saulty]

It depends what you have as a game bet in your hands. For example if you have the draw in a soccer game for final score and the game is tied at HT betting a side for 2nd half is most times +EV.

 

[MonkeyF0cker]

Saw a video today from SSAC where a vegas bookmaker said something that piqued my interest. Before y'all sharps laugh at me answer me this. Are there instance where a 2nd half line is more for a book's risk management and thus inefficient to the actual outcome? What sports? How big of a game ($$ wise) must it be for a book to care about this?

Assuming the closing line is efficient (isn't that at the center of what y'all do with line shopping?) can't you just reverse engineer what the 2nd half line should be and thus see when the book is risk managing (barring some injury or other change in circumstances)?

You may now commence the laughter.

That depends upon the risk aversion of the book honestly. 2H lines are typically inefficient as a whole due to the time constraints of the betting window. It's not really possible to "reverse engineer" a 2H line as if you were to derive it from the full game line, it would ignore current game situations (score differentials, injuries, totals to that point, etc.). The methods used to model a 2H line are similar to those of a full game line. Books that release the numbers (typically high volume books that want balanced action) are really only able to throw up first order approximations (again due to time constraints). For the books that copy those numbers (books that would probably tend to be more risk averse due to lower volume and imbalanced action - Vegas books would typically fall under this category), if they were looking to draw action on a particular side, they may intentionally open their line on that side/total a little off-market.

 

[kato]

yeah