2024 MLB First 5 Experiment

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Adding

NYM -105 (I did actually bet the Mets this time :handshake:)
CLE +106

So I did make a change to this approach. I just realized that FanGraphs has a separate WAR table that extrapolates pitcher performance to 200 innings pitched. It's not perfect for the sake of this first-5 experiment, but it's (probably) a better performance predictor for relief pitchers that get used as starters.
 
YTD 14-6-4 +6.66u

Thursday May 2

SFG -105
TEX -190
NYM -105 (I did actually bet the Mets this time :handshake:)
CLE +106
 
4 out of the 6 games, I love this model
 
Lines are all over the place at bookies. Looks like this might become my bread and butter.
 
I knew it, hockey player props is where it's at with hockey
 
1 win 1 push 1 loss so far

Pressure is now on the Guardians to give us a winning day

lets go guardians
 
YTD 16-7-5 +7.67u

Friday May 3

MIL +104
CIN -120
PHI -158
PIT -170
NYM +106
CLE -180
KCR -120
 
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Adding

STL -250
SDP -115
LAD -115
 
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YTD 16-7-5 +7.67u

Friday May 3

MIL +104
CIN -120
PHI -158
PIT -170
NYM +106
CLE -180
KCR -120
STL -250
SDP -115
LAD -115
 
I'm slightly uncomfortable with the amount of correlation between full game and first 5 bets. I basically have six 2-unit bets today.

#GAMBOL
 
This is going poorly.
 
Matty
YTD 16-7-5 +7.67u

Friday May 3

MIL +104 🟡
CIN -120 🟡
PHI -158 :greencheck:
PIT -170 🟡
NYM +106 :redx:
CLE -180 :redx:
KCR -120 🟡
STL -250 :greencheck:
SDP -115 :greencheck:
LAD -115 :greencheck:
Click to expand...
4-2-4 +1.2u

YTD 20-9-9 +8.87u

No idea how this ended up being a winning day! It had the texture of a catastrophe.

:woohoo:
 
YTD 20-9-9 +8.87u

Saturday May 4

NYY -160
STL -166
CHC -128
TOR -155
 
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Adding

SFG +155
LAA +115
NYM -105
LAD -195
 
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