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Is slightly different a material amount? For Week 5, it costs 25 cents to buy Rams from +3 to +3.5 (away). It costs 26 cents to buy Browns +3 to +3.5 (home) - the difference I assume is really just rounding. However, I haven't looked into differences between home / road when the number is far...

Pats +7.5 now -305 as opposed to Dolphins +7.5 at -300. ML is -106 / -104 for the Dolphins. Not that anyone bets these, but it's a bit sillay.

still taking a side on the game via the teaser - just trying to reduce my exposure.

Another question re: pinnacle pricing Was taking a look at the alternate lines for the NE - MIA game tonight, and they are currently offering Miami +7.5 for -300. Also, I noticed this week they're offering the Saints ML at -325, with the Saints being a 7 point favorite. Why would there...

I didn't realize Pinnacle had flipped to favor the dolphins. This comes up with a $0 hedge if the pats are still at -1 -110 (which they currently are at bodog). However, I might just blow my 10 dollar free play on this for peace of mind, despite being sub optimal.

If anyone jumped aboard the 6.5 teaser train this weekend, I'm sure you've got MIA in there as the last leg. I'm looking at going for a full game spread hedge on the pats for about 60% (EDIT - I mean 40%) of my amount at stake with this MIA tease Are there any better options out there?

I've dug through my NFL archives and filtered out every game where a high profile backup had replaced the starter early in the season AND the team in question was facing their former QB who had started on the team > 5 years. The system is currently 3-0 on props where the family appearances are...

Note: must be a direct shot of Kevin Kolb, not in the background Awesome bodog prop. Over / Under 3.5? Also, included How many times during the Eagles - Redskins game will Donovan McNabb's Parents be shown on TV? Over / Under 1.5

Thanks for the heads up - I just got +4 (-135) at Bodog.

I just wanted to bump this to apologize for the reckless "advice" I was giving by posting all these teases. As max points out, there really should have only been bets for the first 12-14 of these, with the rest dropping out to 0% of bankroll due to the correlation. And selective NFL...

I'm glad I plastered all my TB and JAX teasers on the board. Who knew charlie batch would play like its 2000? It seems like the common denominator here is the Panthers - those wins by the Giants and Buccs look really unimpressive now (as do both of these teams as well)...

Ha- have you read all his book yet? I recall you saying the NFL model was incredibly rudimentary. Also, I agree with the home / road split (which I did not consider), although one would expect the MLs to reverse since Indy is on the road. I suppose it's moot now that the numbers have...

They are indeed separate markets - I would just think that the differences wouldn't even exist at a site like pinny, since (I thought) the ML market is heavily derived from spread + push probs. Perhaps one can justify it by saying SDG has a large STD DEV or something.

Totals are both around 46. Both teams are at -9 Per VegasInsider, Colts were -9 +111 when pinny setup the ML at -410 Per VegasInsider, SDG were -9 +104 when pinny setup the ML at -410 Colts currently -9 +111 at -400 SDG currently -9 +107 at -385.

Edit: Had a post about hedging, but then I changed my mind - I'm going to ride this one out.

If the Bears can pull off a +9, This entire experiment will result in a loss of about 13% of BR I think (in my case, 20 bucks) However, I will continue to do this every week till I either hit the Bodog $1 minimum to bet or completely wipe myself out. WE WILL NOT BE DETERRED BY RANDOM CHANCE!

TB and Jax getting crushed were bad news for these. I'll let everyone know the final damage once all the bets are done.

Just put down these, but my macro quit on me. I guess I'll leave as is and see how it goes. Kansas City Chiefs 74.44% Dallas Cowboys 74.52% Jacksonville Jaguars 74.29% 6 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 73.74% Kansas City Chiefs 74.44% Dallas Cowboys 74.52% 6 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 73.74% Dallas Cowboys...

Some choice wisdom from Big Al: "Since the early 1980s, NFL teams that haven't had a bye and are coming off of back-to-back upset wins are 28-57 against the spread when playing non-division foes and are not getting more than seven points. Sorry, Steelers fans, but your crew has won two in a row...

Ha - I'm not a pro by any stretch of the imagination. I've got 155 bucks at play here. Although the pro label doesn't necessarily bring a lot with it - has anyone read chad millman's blog at ESPN? He has an article every week about "system" picks from "pros", with sample sizes <100 going back...