Pinny Colts lean

[djiddish98]

Totals are both around 46.

Both teams are at -9

Per VegasInsider, Colts were -9 +111 when pinny setup the ML at -410
Per VegasInsider, SDG were -9 +104 when pinny setup the ML at -410

Colts currently -9 +111 at -400
SDG currently -9 +107 at -385.

 

[fiveteamer]

Why do people such as yourself and Tomato try to be cute?


"Oh wow, Pinny WANTS you to take this team..."

Just flip a coin and grab your nuts.

Can't win boyyyyzzzzz

 

[MonkeyF0cker]

Separate markets, DJ. They're both at -400 now.

 

[djiddish98]

Separate markets, DJ. They're both at -400 now.

They are indeed separate markets - I would just think that the differences wouldn't even exist at a site like pinny, since (I thought) the ML market is heavily derived from spread + push probs.

Perhaps one can justify it by saying SDG has a large STD DEV or something.

 

[rito]

ml should be derived from the spread and the total. and if you are justin7 you run a regression on that, proclaim yourself a winner and write a book. In reality I assume it is far more complicated. For example, in the NBA (assuming the same total) a 7pt home favorite does not win SU the same % of the time as a 7pt road favorite.

 

[djiddish98]

ml should be derived from the spread and the total. and if you are justin7 you run a regression on that, proclaim yourself a winner and write a book. In reality I assume it is far more complicated. For example, in the NBA (assuming the same total) a 7pt home favorite does not win SU the same % of the time as a 7pt road favorite.

Ha- have you read all his book yet? I recall you saying the NFL model was incredibly rudimentary.

Also, I agree with the home / road split (which I did not consider), although one would expect the MLs to reverse since Indy is on the road.

I suppose it's moot now that the numbers have converged to the same. The reason I noticed it originally (and again last week) was I'm trying to see the difference between no-vig ML prob and my attempt at calculating push probs. Typically, my prob calc is about 1 - 1.5% higher (since I haven't figured out a good way to calculate the decay) for spreads of -6.5 to -9, but Indy, two weeks in a row, had a very tiny negative difference, which caught my attention.