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Once Again Sports Are Foxed

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Vegas Dave
🚨🦊 POTENTIAL NFL FOX ALERT 🦊🚨

Every casual and their mother will be pounding Bijan Robinson props against the Dolphins, right?

Worst rushing defense in NFL (159.3 yards per game surrendered), last three weeks clowned for 84 yards 3 TDs by Judkins, 124 yards (138 total 1 TD) by Vidal, 206 yards 1 TD by Dowdle. That's Judkins Vidal and Dowdle, WTF does an elite back like Bijan do to them?

Bijan to score a TD "only" -265 (compared to JT -400 vs Titans) 🤔

O/U 92.5 yards 🤔

O/U 136.5 total yards (when he averages 152.3 per game 🤔🤔🤔)

🤔🦊🤔🦊🤔🦊🤔🦊🤔🦊🤔🦊🤔
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🦊🚨🦊🚨🦊🚨🦊🚨🦊🚨🦊
 
Vegas Dave
🚨🦊 POTENTIAL NFL FOX ALERT 🦊🚨

Every casual and their mother will be pounding Bijan Robinson props against the Dolphins, right?

Worst rushing defense in NFL (159.3 yards per game surrendered), last three weeks clowned for 84 yards 3 TDs by Judkins, 124 yards (138 total 1 TD) by Vidal, 206 yards 1 TD by Dowdle. That's Judkins Vidal and Dowdle, WTF does an elite back like Bijan do to them?

Bijan to score a TD "only" -265 (compared to JT -400 vs Titans) 🤔

O/U 92.5 yards 🤔

O/U 136.5 total yards (when he averages 152.3 per game 🤔🤔🤔)

🤔🦊🤔🦊🤔🦊🤔🦊🤔🦊🤔🦊🤔
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brilliant
 
FairWarning
VD - what did you think the Bijan line should have been?
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My logic (aka guessing lol) works like this:

Don't think the lines were that crazy off real-world wise.

But if you consider public perception and take a look at the general numbers... Dolphins had worst rushing defense in NFL allowing 156 yards per game, and thats on average... top five rushing team should in theory do even better. So that's what, 175ish? Maybe ~125 for Bijan and ~50 for Allgeier?

Given every single fantasy football and betting article "expert" I saw was talking about this being such an amazing matchup for Bijan (and numbers backing that up), wouldn't have been surprised to see the over at a premium like 99.5 or higher. Maybe some sharps get a good line (which still has to hit, not like Bijan CAN'T crush), but that'll be offset by public action.

So seeing a very hittable line that should get tons of action (like you said, seemed great to add that TD to a parlay) makes me think that the bookmakers know something I don't.

Maybe they knew 2025 Matt Ryan was a fucking bum and the offense wouldn't work with him running it? Maybe there's some OL mismatch or injury a casual like me is unaware of?

Or, in honor of the 🦊 King @CASPERWAIT$... maybe the 🦊 is in. I'm not an everything-is-scripted truther, but there's obviously not STONE ZERO funny business going on.

So yeah, TLDR; If it looks too good to be true, it probably is.
 
Vegas Dave
My logic (aka guessing lol) works like this:

Don't think the lines were that crazy off real-world wise.

But if you consider public perception and take a look at the general numbers... Dolphins had worst rushing defense in NFL allowing 156 yards per game, and thats on average... top five rushing team should in theory do even better. So that's what, 175ish? Maybe ~125 for Bijan and ~50 for Allgeier?

Given every single fantasy football and betting article "expert" I saw was talking about this being such an amazing matchup for Bijan (and numbers backing that up), wouldn't have been surprised to see the over at a premium like 99.5 or higher. Maybe some sharps get a good line (which still has to hit, not like Bijan CAN'T crush), but that'll be offset by public action.

So seeing a very hittable line that should get tons of action (like you said, seemed great to add that TD to a parlay) makes me think that the bookmakers know something I don't.

Maybe they knew 2025 Matt Ryan was a fucking bum and the offense wouldn't work with him running it? Maybe there's some OL mismatch or injury a casual like me is unaware of?

Or, in honor of the 🦊 King @CASPERWAIT$... maybe the 🦊 is in. I'm not an everything-is-scripted truther, but there's obviously not STONE ZERO funny business going on.

So yeah, TLDR; If it looks too good to be true, it probably is.
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I will say the books are much better at prop lines than 5 years ago. You had the right idea with the Bijan 125/Allgeier 50. The big play I wanted to make was Allgeier rush yards over, then London was ruled out so I played Pitts yards over instead (smaller).

I think its four weeks in a row that Taylor has been a bigger TD favorite than Bijan. You're correct, perception is everything and it doesnt take much to move these numbers.
 
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