CHICAGO WHITE SOX

-120


GO!

With you again, but man, I hate this team.

Disaster 7th inning

fukin sox

Stop betting on sides when the line moves the other way. Especially in the final moves.

I hear you Tomato and even though I posted this just before game time I had actually made the play hours before gametime

But point taken

Tomato

Especially in the final moves.

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I'd like to discuss this if anyone is open to talking about line movement.

I would think that the final move might not necessarily be the sharpest, or at least have the interest in the outcome of the bet.

Throughout the day, the market is absorbing information, reacting to bets, and adjusting prices accordingly. However, at what point is there really no new information? Subjectively, I would think the end point for information could basically be after the pitcher has warmed up, so 5-10 minutes before gametime?

Why then is there still movement in the line after we've basically reached the end point for new info? Anyone watching SBRodds 5-10 minutes before opening pitch sees lots of line movement, so certainly lots of bets are being made.

There could be two cases: The first one is that the super sharpz sit on their hands and wait till the very end to hammer bets home. If this was true, then why not make the same bet at the following points in time if you liked the number (I've listed a reason why after the semi colon)

1) Openers; the reason is low limits
2) Once limits are raised; perhaps still waiting for lineups
3) Once lineups are released; perhaps waiting for warmups?
4) Once warmups are done

It would seem like waiting till the very end to make a bet with full information might not be optimal, because you could lose a line you like if someone jumps in before you.

One could argue that placing a bet is not an instantaneous process, so perhaps these movements are reflecting the lag it takes between making a pick as soon as you have full information and actually placing a wager. Fair enough.

However, I've started to see end line movement the way I view stock market action at the end of the day. It's not necssarily indicative of the market, its just indicative of the position the heavy day traders took. If you shorted the market during the day, you'd cover your shorts at the end of the trading day to lock in profits. So what looks like a stock price increase is actually just someone closing out their counter position.

Perhaps the same principle can be applied to a moneyline and an arber. Someone bet X on the whitesox thinking the line will move in their favor. When it does, buy back the position on the Tigers to lock in the profit. I would also think that big time arbers are playing with enough money to place limit bets and move the market.

So - to summarize:

Is last line movement related to the changing value of the line or is it an external reason to the market, such as someone closing out an arb?

Of course, there's not one rule for every line move, but is there a general statement that can be made?

Congrats for reading this wall.

Great post dj

It's interesting because I ask the same questions to myself everyday in respect to late line movement.

I like the Devil's Advocate approach of your post.


So obviously I don't have the answer to your question but I hope we get some diplomatic responses.

Bump in reference to post #7

I was actually thinking about looking into this myself.

I could probably develop something to pull all the line moves off of vegas insider for 2009 (decent source?)

Then, setup some variable columns for each line movement. If the last line movement was in favor of the home team, mark as 1. against the home team, mark that column as 1. Line at 15 minutes, mark as 1. etc The Y variable would be 1 if the home team won, 0 if the visitor won.

This is taking the classic "opening lines vs. closing lines" analysis, and expanding it to much more time frames. I found a paper that concluded closing lines were sharper way back, but I can't find it anymore.

Once I have the data, I "THINK" I should run a logistic regression on this (we're dealing with probabilities). Unfortunately, this exits the excel realm and enters the R realm, which I have no comfort using. Also, I took intro to stat twice and that's about it (never got around to econometrics) so my depth of stat knowledge is limited.

Does anyone have a solid approach to comparing the relevancy of line movements? Should I just try and scrape the data and throw it out into the wild for others smarter than me?

Also, can we change the title of this thread? Cool.

Yeah I was going to suggest merging this with a new thread titled What Does Late Line Movement Really Mean or something to that effect

MrX

With you again, but man, I hate this team.

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To commemorate the popularity of the Chicago White Sox lately we would like to inaugurate a new smiley.

:chisox:

Tron

Yeah I was going to suggest merging this with a new thread titled What Does Late Line Movement Really Mean or something to that effect

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I've looked into this a little bit, backtesting a couple seasons worth of data. The conclusion is that late moves are not a significant predictor of outcome.

Good 14yo bump Rogatien.

I took a picture with the Sox world series trophy at some point

what type of person chooses the White Sox instead of the Cubs?

roguejuror

what type of person chooses the White Sox instead of the Cubs?

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The city folk and NW Indiana are more Sox fans. Cub fans are west and north suburbs and national thanks to WGN showing the games back in the day.