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Andre Ethier is sexy

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Polaroid
The skill of mixing pitches should in most cases be reflected in a pitcher's long term metrics such as FIP/xFIP. I'm not going to calculate it exactly, but I'm looking at Jamie Moyer's 2006-2010 stats and his ERA seems pretty much in line with his actual FIP/xFIP. Some years his ERA is higher than it should be, some years it's less but it appears to be a pretty much accurate long term measure.

The case of intangibles is definitely true in MLB but it is the exception rather than the rule. Jamie Moyer doesn't exhibit anything other than the metrics he produces although someone like Matt Cain consistently posts a very low HR/FB ratio - but that could very well be because of pitching coaches in SF rather than any inherent ability (and there is a lot of material about Cain's HR/FB ratio if you're interested).



MLB is not like the other sports when it comes to player development and the draft is a real crapshoot (although a good scouting team can assist in it). They draft from HS and from colleges, someone posting awesome numbers from HS is not necessarily MLB material. Scouts looking at HS players are going to use their eyes to look for future potential rather than any numbers when drafting. When players are nowhere being fully developed, you can't really rely upon numbers.
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again

I"m actually still half awake. I'll re-digest this tomorrow

I really do appreciate you answering my random drunken incoherent replies, point by point. and i'll appreciate it even more tomorrow.

as far as the crapshoot with scouts and drafting college vs HS. that is a very interesting conversation.

but you also have to factor in the South American baseball camps/colleges ect whatever you wanna call them, that MLB teams are pooring millions into

more and more. the impact arm or bat you are gonna have on your team is gonna come from some tiny village in S. America and NOT from Arizona, Rice, Cal or some florida or california HS prep.

its a crapshoot

but some teams are better at all facets of it than other teams

and what determines that? metrics? stats?

no an old fashioned eye for baseball and an intangible gift for predicting future MLB talent.

I mean the KC royals knew what they were doing right? or was it all just luck?

I'm not sure to be honest either. Baseball is such a weird sport to "scout" evaluate "talent" ect....
 
Archie
as far as the crapshoot with scouts and drafting college vs HS. that is a very interesting conversation.

but you also have to factor in the South American baseball camps/colleges ect whatever you wanna call them, that MLB teams are pooring millions into

more and more. the impact arm or bat you are gonna have on your team is gonna come from some tiny village in S. America and NOT from Arizona, Rice, Cal or some florida or california HS prep.

its a crapshoot
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They only come from a tiny village in South America because generally they aren't as well scouted as American schools, coupled also with the fact that if you sign an IFA from South America, you don't lose a draft pick.

Archie
but some teams are better at all facets of it than other teams

and what determines that? metrics? stats?
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Generally it's either good business or good common sense or, more probably, money. If you have good scouts that can look out of the USA then that's good, if you've got the resources to look at a LOT of players out of the USA then that's even better. And the more you can sign as an IFA then the more chance you have of future MLB talent.

Archie
no an old fashioned eye for baseball and an intangible gift for predicting future MLB talent.
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I don't think there is anyone alive that can has the intangible gift for perfectly (or anywhere close to) predicting future MLB talent.

Archie
I mean the KC royals knew what they were doing right? or was it all just luck?
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They have been a really bad team for a long time and so they had a lot of high draft picks for a number of years. When you haven't got the money to scout the external markets, you've got to make sure that you can do it via the draft. They may have the best farm system in baseball but getting them altogether at the same park at the same park is another question. You could even say that the Royals have done really well out of the draft in recent years and the Pirates have done really bad - in that case the positive and the negative negate each other.
 
Polaroid
They only come from a tiny village in South America because generally they aren't as well scouted as American schools, coupled also with the fact that if you sign an IFA from South America, you don't lose a draft pick.



Generally it's either good business or good common sense or, more probably, money. If you have good scouts that can look out of the USA then that's good, if you've got the resources to look at a LOT of players out of the USA then that's even better. And the more you can sign as an IFA then the more chance you have of future MLB talent.



I don't think there is anyone alive that can has the intangible gift for perfectly (or anywhere close to) predicting future MLB talent.



They have been a really bad team for a long time and so they had a lot of high draft picks for a number of years. When you haven't got the money to scout the external markets, you've got to make sure that you can do it via the draft. They may have the best farm system in baseball but getting them altogether at the same park at the same park is another question. You could even say that the Royals have done really well out of the draft in recent years and the Pirates have done really bad - in that case the positive and the negative negate each other.
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KC has done well completely. I look for them to move some of their talent this year for almost arb eligible talent or younger this year.....

Pirates have done well the last few years in the draft on the high end actually...
you see them on the field today. Walker, McCutch, Alvarez all on the field and a part of the future. guys like Moskos, Lincoln ect.

its a step in the right direction for them to even at least get their high end picks on the field and contributing....
 
Polaroid did WORK in this thread. Good baseball discussion boys.

Polaroid, while WHIP and ERA are essentially luck stats, would you agree that WHIP is still a better indicator of a pitchers performance than ERA?

Both obviously being far less valuable than fip
 
Daft
Polaroid did WORK in this thread. Good baseball discussion boys.

Polaroid, while WHIP and ERA are essentially luck stats, would you agree that WHIP is still a better indicator of a pitchers performance than ERA?

Both obviously being far less valuable than fip
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good question.

I have a feeling since i'm lazy and old school and not that smart in math. That i'm gonna stick to more rudimentary spot/recreational betting and do less work rather than more work.

Can you get by with using WHIP, K/9, gb/fb ratio, k/bb ratio, batting average or OPS against and stuff like that?

and I guess when I say... "get by" can people be profitable using the basics like that along with their gut? or is that basically coin flipping and losing long term?
 
fiveteamer
Brock Landers bets with his gut.
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Fiver I went maybe a bit too large on some futures a few weeks back on Kentucky Derby winners, that madmaxx gave me

Fiver, break down your horse handicapping style in cliff notes for us.

if you can't do that.

give me 3 horses that you see having value to bet futures on for the derby

thanks
 
fiveteamer
I haven't watched a single Derby Prep this year. I have no idea who is even in the race.
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yeah that was one of my questions actually.

I don't know shit about shit about shit when it comes to horses

but I love watching it, and I especially love the big races.

my question was gonna be when the set the final entry list..

because at this point there are like 50 possible horses that you can bet futures on. surely they won't all be in the race.

so its possible to bet a future on a horse to win, that doesn't even get in the race
 
Yeah, obviously if the horse doesn't make the race you lose. You can start betting Derby Futures in February I think. It is a crapshoot. Check historical prices, usually the "field" wins. Meaning all other horses who aren't even in that particular pool.
 
Archie
Can you get by with using WHIP, K/9, gb/fb ratio, k/bb ratio, batting average or OPS against and stuff like that?

and I guess when I say... "get by" can people be profitable using the basics like that along with their gut? or is that basically coin flipping and losing long term?
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Rather than concentrating on a number of stats, many of which aren't particularly useful (batting average allowed) or contain elements which aren't useful (OPS allowed) you are better placed to concentrate on the ones which are useful (K, BB, IBB, FB%, HBP). Even better than that, use a metric like xFIP which combines them all into a number which is very easy to interpret.
 
yeah that makes sense.

but I still feel weird basically saying. use stats that show you pitchers that throw strikes, yet MISS bats.

Its tough to let go of my old school notions I was brought up upon.

which sites give you easily acessible xfip and adjusted era type metrics?


What is Charlie Morton's BABIP?
 
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