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When capping MLB bullpens

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Mudcat

Mudcat

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Would you put more weight on the full season stats or would you focus more on more recent history like 14 days or 21 days or something like that?

Come to think of it, I have a question (b): what stat would you sort by first? I have been going with WHIP but I would be interested in other thoughts on that.



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first and foremost you have to look at available bullpen.... knowing which guys have pitched 2 or 3 straight nights, who hasn't pitched for 3 nights ect...

I look at whip, but also you wanted get info on inherited runners scoring... a bullpen guy can have a great whip, era, baa ect.. but if everytime he comes in he lets 1 or two of the guys that were on base when he came in score. it doesn't mean much.

bullpen guys can be great one year and sucky the next, back to great the year after... I look at the full season, but also how they have been doing recently in the ten game log
 
Good point Archie.

When playing Seattle games you should know if Brandon League is available to pitch that night, if Seattle has the lead and League is brought in the lead will evaporate, usually in less than 15 pitches.
 
Mudcat
Would you put more weight on the full season stats or would you focus more on more recent history like 14 days or 21 days or something like that?
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If you're talking about looking at the bullpen as a whole, which is very, very far from ideal, then somewhere between 21 days and full season. You want to full-season (more, really) to get a large enough enough sample size, but the further you go back the more you're looking at a bullpen that isn't representative of the one you're trying to project, both in terms of personnel, and opportunities for the individual pitchers. You have to make some pretty big trade-offs when you lump bullpen stats together.

Mudcat
Come to think of it, I have a question (b): what stat would you sort by first? I have been going with WHIP but I would be interested in other thoughts on that.
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Of the stats on fangraphs, xFIP. There's still a lot of luck in WHIP.
 
I like to look at ground ball outs, and strike outs with bullpen pitchers. I dont want a guy coming in with inherited runners giving up sac flys. The run my still score on the ground ball, but I rather have ground balls than fly ball outs with a bullpen pitcher.

Also it is important took at individual games if you are going with say a 21 day period. One bad outing could skew his numbers
 
Here are some definitions for you, MrM.

FIP
Fielding Independent Pitching, a measure of all those things for which a pitcher is specifically responsible. The formula is (HR*13+(BB+HBP-IBB)*3-K*2)/IP, plus a league-specific factor (usually around 3.2) to round out the number to an equivalent ERA number. FIP helps you understand how well a pitcher pitched, regardless of how well his fielders fielded.
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xFIP
Expected Fielding Independent Pitching. This is an experimental stat that adjusts FIP and "normalizes" the home run component. Research has shown that home runs allowed are pretty much a function of flyballs allowed and home park, so xFIP is based on the average number of home runs allowed per outfield fly. Theoretically, this should be a better predicter of a pitcher's future ERA.
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Thanks Arch.

I am much more comfortable and a far better capper when I luck into something that "appears" to be working and enabling me to make selections in a see mingling unbiased way. Something meaningless and simple but just tricks the brain into making a choice.

If it produces another winning college basketball season and a hockey season I fully intend to write a book on this method. You obviously will get a complimentary signed first edition.
 
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