What were the true odds of Giants safety

[roguejuror]

being the first scoring play of the match? Cause I don't think it's 50-1.

Did this dude get robbed? Sarah Phillips should have touched this angle.

At the MGM Grand in Las Vegas, Rechnitz bet $1,000 at 50-to-1 odds that the first score of Super Bowl XLVI would be a Giants safety. "My friends thought I was crazy," Rechnitz told Page 2. "To be honest, I actually thought I was crazy, too."

http://espn.go.com/espn/page2/index?id=7550326

 

[reno cool]

probably 5x that. It's pretty crazy to think that people will throw out a thousand $ on something like that for the fuck of it.

how many games in the last 20 years started with a safety? I would guess <5. too many geniuses with too much money running around.

 

[Matty]

That's a good day at the office.

I wonder how much action MGM had on that prop.

 

[choo]

too many geniuses with too much money running around.

yep but you gotta embrace because if fat pig jumps in lake lotta fish eat starving pig jump in only MF eats. Id bet the over on true odds being 5x 50-1 no statistics to back up my opinion.

 

[roguejuror]

and on top taxes :

 

[MonkeyF0cker]

That's a good day at the office.

I wonder how much action MGM had on that prop.

Jay (the MGM/Mirage sportsbook director) said they lost about $250k in total (between first score and any score) on that safety.

Despite that, they still had a very good Superbowl.

 

[UntilTheNDofTimE]

Is there actually a mathematical way to define true odds on this event? probably has a lifetime sample size of 25 games in nfl histroy, much less the superbowl.

 

[Matty]

Is there actually a mathematical way to define true odds on this event? probably has a lifetime sample size of 25 games in nfl histroy, much less the superbowl.

Sample size would be every NFL game ever played, but yeah, still.

 

[Troll Bait]

1259 tds, 838 fgs, 21 safeties in 2011 reg season. 1 in 100 for any score will be a safety. first drive is much less, 1 in 110.

 

[mcbaseball10]

So how in the world did the MGM Grand know?

 

[MrMonkey]

1259 tds, 838 fgs, 21 safeties in 2011 reg season. 1 in 100 for any score will be a safety. first drive is much less, 1 in 110.

Now that's a quality 1st post! Awesome!

Welcome aboard and we are glad to have you at Gamelive!

 

[kato]

Now that's a quality 1st post! Awesome!

Welcome aboard and we are glad to have you at Gamelive!

http://gamelive.com/forum/showthrea...newest-member-Troll-Bait?highlight=troll+bait

 

[reno cool]

curious to know how many of those 21 were actually 1st scores

 

[MrMonkey]

Kato brings out the best in people! :

 

[reno cool]

curious to know how many of those 21 were actually 1st scores

nevermind, see what you're saying. based on that true odds for a particular team to get it is like 1/220. if so I was close

 

[MonkeyF0cker]

Well, that's just a VERY rough first order approximation. You'd have to take defensive and offensive efficiencies into account.

True odds were almost definitely higher on a game with a total that high.

 

[rito]

I only see one other safety this year that was first score of the game.

That bet is horrendous. If they offered No it would be a great bet.