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Tennis futures betting is funny

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Pavy
Why wouldn't you trust me? I trust that you will pay the $100 if the bets loses and I never met you.
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trusting someone to shell out $100 is a lot different than 50k. there is also a difference between a lack of trust and precaution. I trust you'll pay me if Raonic or Ferrer win but am I 100% positive? No. and it's nothing against you I thought Poogs over at 2p2 was one of the more successfull handicappers we had in forumville and he almost ran away over a $1000 bet with someone so you can never be too sure. That's why I asked if you'd escrow 5% which I dont think is unreasonable.
 
Lets just forget this. I will place a bet myself on Raonic and Ferer not to win the Wimbledon and make me some easy $100. No need to tie each others money for 3 weeks with a 3rd party person living in a 3rd world country.

Good luck with your tennis bets!

:ouimonsieur:
 
Tomato
Chance of the winner not being Nadal or Djokovic is 46.727% using current Pinny Yes/No prices
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This is only correct if the two events are independent. Independence requires that the occurrence of one event not change the probability of another event. If we know that Nadal has lost, then the chance of Djokovic winning increases.

....this is what i wrote up earlier..

No odds are easily calculated when you have the yes odds. It's just 1 - chance of yes. The yes odds are easily calculated from the futures market prices.

Or, we can go to www.pinnaclesports.com and see that they have yes/no prices on the top 3:

WILL N. DJOKOVIC WIN WIMBLEDON 2012?
02:05 AM 2001 Yes +173
2002 No -196

FRI 6/22 WILL R. NADAL WIN WIMBLEDON 2012?
02:05 AM 2003 Yes +256
2004 No -290

FRI 6/22 WILL R. FEDERER WIN WIMBLEDON 2012?
02:05 AM 2005 Yes +446
2006 No -530

Removing the vig gives us the following win probabilities:

Djok Yes: 35.6% No: 64.4%
Nadal Yes: 27.4% No: 72.6%
Federer Yes: 17.9% No: 82.1%

Murray odds are ~8% to win so 92% to not win.

So, the first bet mentioned was Not Djo/Nadal. The prob that either one wins is simply P(Nadal Wins) + P(Djokovic Wins) = .365+.274 = .63 . This addition rule is only valid for mutualy exclusive events, meaning both cannot happen. Thus to find the odds that neither wins we subtract from 1 and get 37% chance that neither wins. Which of course makes +1000 or +3000 great bets.

Same method for the top 3 gets 81% to win, and 19% (as choo mentioned) to not win.

Adding murray and it becomes 89% to win and 11% no.
 
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