Teaser Question

[wal66]

I realize my educational needs are kind of vast and to add to my confusion is the fact that I jump around a lot, essentially moving on to something else before I actually understand the current question.

Todays question should be fairly simple for one of the pros to answer though, at least I hope its as simple as it appears to be.

Last night I teased Denver to +15 and the over at 44.5. My thinking was that I would be covering the 10,13 and 14 which I would assume are key numbers as well. While I understand going the other way I would cross 7 and 3 with the favorite which are also key numbers. Obviously I lost my teaser but did I do the mathematical right thing?

I can see an argument for either side here but Im not looking to argue just some opinions.

 

[madmaxx]

Denver was playing in SD against an angry Chargers team...mistake

 

[wal66]

I'm more concerned about which numbers are more important to cover than the mentality of the players or teams involved. San Diego played as good a game as they have all season and obviously the teaser lost but was it really a mistake?

 

[madmaxx]

Yes, -9 was a gift and the Chargers could have won by 50 if they wanted to...sometimes you have to ignore the numbers and look at the emotional/common sense side of the line.

Denver had no business being in that game, the opening line should have been -20

 

[betplom]

Wal, I believe it is popular belief among those with a clue that you shouldn't tease big dogs.

 

[madmaxx]

Especially against the loudest crowd Qualcomm has had in 2 years......just a thought though.

 

[madmaxx]

Wal, I believe it is popular belief among those with a clue that you shouldn't tease big dogs.

True, and if you do it would only be in college football and the key #'s would be 23,24,27...10,13,14 and even 17 aren't key #'s for an NFL dog

 

[Herman]

no your play was not correct

there is a reason why blackie gives you free money

 

[madmaxx]

onner, SDSU is 5-0 ATS, werd up

 

[Saulty]

Wal, I believe it is popular belief among those with a clue that you shouldn't tease big dogs.

Wal you never tease the +8.5 or +9 to +15..you only tease it to -2.5 or -3. When the opening line is set at +8.5 or +9 it is set in this way to attract square dog money. If the books wanted to attract Chargers money the line should have opened -6.5 or -7.

 

[wal66]

Ok Pavs. I am writing this down for future reference.

 

[Saulty]

Ok Pavs. I am writing this down for future reference.

Also pay attention on how Pinnacle positions themselves right before kickoff. You remember Redskins +3.5 and Giants +3.5 (both vs Eagles) in the last two weeks? Everyone else was at +3 at +110 or +115 but Pinny dangled the +3.5 -110 on both games which the Eagles both covered.

 

[madmaxx]

Eagles were home dogs against Eli?

 

[FreeFall]

figure out the push frequencies on those numbers then come back.

 

[Archie]

Wal you never tease the +8.5 or +9 to +15..you only tease it to -2.5 or -3. When the opening line is set at +8.5 or +9 it is set in this way to attract square dog money. If the books wanted to attract Chargers money the line should have opened -6.5 or -7.

Also pay attention on how Pinnacle positions themselves right before kickoff. You remember Redskins +3.5 and Giants +3.5 (both vs Eagles) in the last two weeks? Everyone else was at +3 at +110 or +115 but Pinny dangled the +3.5 -110 on both games which the Eagles both covered.

Wal, don't listen to Pavy

just pick winners and you won't worry bout numbers or Pinny