Stock Picking - Straight Gambling

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Stop loss or average in around 9.90... Might have a real loser here boys. I'll prolly avg in because I like the pain.
 
This shit seems impossible to predict.
 
Matty
This shit seems impossible to predict.
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If you're not working with some pretty advanced modeling algorithms, you don't really stand much of a chance short term. Much of the news you get (good or bad) is probabilistically priced into the stock already.

Buy and hold is a different story generally. But there's no fun in that.
 
I think the reaction you get depends on how you approach investing. I think Keynes (or some other dead economist) wrote somewhere about getting casino like results if you approach investing in a casino type way. I think it's pretty on the mark as to short term investing. Besides the odd risk arbitrage or special situation I don't really do much trading.

I know the big houses on wall street and the hedge funds do all sorts of black box stuff but I'll never be intelligent enough to understand it. Not that the additional IQ power really matters in some cases when it blows up in their faces see -Long term capital management etc.

Bone I don't know much about the big financial companies. What worries me about any of them is what's hidden on the balance sheet that cold blow up in their face in the future. I don't think I could recognize it if I tried. I think a lot of the risk is vetted out and they are good businesses (although i think competition is such that any competitive advantage beside scale does not exist) but I have no idea which company will be profitable long term yet alone still around.

FWIW I'm looking at shipping companies (Greek) and to see if any good businesses in Italy get cheap enough.
 
Boner_18
Stop loss or average in around 9.90... Might have a real loser here boys. I'll prolly avg in because I like the pain.
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This and hopefully getting paid. Proud owner of 100 Feb 13 strikes.
 
MonkeyF0cker
If you're not working with some pretty advanced modeling algorithms, you don't really stand much of a chance short term. Much of the news you get (good or bad) is probabilistically priced into the stock already.

Buy and hold is a different story generally. But there's no fun in that.
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I generally subscribe to efficient market hypothisis but i'm not so sure pretty advanced modeling algorithms are needed to gain an edge. Would you consider elliot wave theory, and classical technical analysis "pretty advanced?" There is profit to be made in true day trading, true swing trading with the right discipline and most importantly risk management.

I agree that fundemental analysis + time IS a different story, and I agree that there is no fun in that.

I'm certainly not saying I invest/trade profitably, I admit I'm straight gambling.
 
get this money.

Im leveraged to the tits with 10000 February 13.00 strike calls. In the black inclusive of fees, every penny these things move I make (or lose) $100. Go buy a ford!
 
Alternative energy stocks is where the money is at, there is GT Advanced Technologies for example is a good one, it'll hold your money for about 3 months, but it will sell big.

There are penny stocks you can buy into and buy like 100 shares or more, double your cash flow quick.

But seriously, Alternative Energy, I also hear GMC isn't a bad stock option either.
 
What does "leveraged" mean? Gambling on credit?

Talk to me like I don't speak English.
 
Leveraged basically means that you have borrowed capital, or assest, or investments to you increase your chance of return.

Like borrowed money from another investor, or margin sharing, in spread betting having leverage can mean that if things move in the right directing, you won't have to put down an additional deposite.

Basically, it can be very helpful if you know what you are doing.
 
camilion15728
Leveraged basically means that you have borrowed capital, or assest, or investments to you increase your chance of return.

Like borrowed money from another investor, or margin sharing, in spread betting having leverage can mean that if things move in the right directing, you won't have to put down an additional deposite.

Basically, it can be very helpful if you know what you are doing.
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Bolded part sounds like major wishful thinking.
 
well for someone that isn't familiar with it yeah, it could be wishful thinking. But if you are good and picking and chosing, or have a damn good broker, than it can potentially work out very nicely.

But you do have a point, if things go south, you still face a hit. It's something you have to be careful with, So I can only assume that Boner knows what he is doing, or has a damn good broker.
 
In finance, leverage (sometimes referred to as gearing in the United Kingdom) is a general term for any

technique to multiply gains and losses. [1] Common ways to attain leverage are borrowing money, buying

fixed assets and using derivatives.


In this case I buy one call option on ford.. A call option is a right to buy an underlying security (ford) at a given price ("strike" or "strike price") up until a certain date ("expiration"). Typically one option contact ("K") contains 100 options. Functionally stated, a single ford option grants me the right to buy 100 shares of ford, and therein lies the leverage. For $110 i get exposure to $1020 worth of ford (for better or worse).

So far its been for the better.
 
Were HUGH on RIM. They will restructure, reorganize. At the very least you will get a premium on a takeover. $15 is cheap.
 
Boner_18
In finance, leverage (sometimes referred to as gearing in the United Kingdom) is a general term for any

technique to multiply gains and losses. [1] Common ways to attain leverage are borrowing money, buying

fixed assets and using derivatives.


In this case I buy one call option on ford.. A call option is a right to buy an underlying security (ford) at a given price ("strike" or "strike price") up until a certain date ("expiration"). Typically one option contact ("K") contains 100 options. Functionally stated, a single ford option grants me the right to buy 100 shares of ford, and therein lies the leverage. For $110 i get exposure to $1020 worth of ford (for better or worse).

So far its been for the better.
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I understand why an investor would like to multiply gains..but who would want to multiply losses? And does it require a special skill to multiply losses in the stock market?
 
Boner_18
I generally subscribe to efficient market hypothisis but i'm not so sure pretty advanced modeling algorithms are needed to gain an edge. Would you consider elliot wave theory, and classical technical analysis "pretty advanced?" There is profit to be made in true day trading, true swing trading with the right discipline and most importantly risk management.

I agree that fundemental analysis + time IS a different story, and I agree that there is no fun in that.

I'm certainly not saying I invest/trade profitably, I admit I'm straight gambling.
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Elliott Wave, moving averages, support levels, etc. are all pseudo-mathematical science fiction. Predictive capability by those means would completely contradict every aspect of the EMH. No different than picking off something like ATS trends in sports, you may have success temporarily, but that's almost certainly due to simple variance and random-walk noise. There are no viable long term arbitrage opportunities using such strategies. If it were profitable, not only would everyone be doing it due to its simplicity, but those very strategies REQUIRE that the rest of the market does not catch on. Profitability necessitates that you make your move(s) before the market adjusts to your predicted price point.
 
Pavy
I understand why an investor would like to multiply gains..but who would want to multiply losses? And does it require a special skill to multiply losses in the stock market?
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Well I don't know that would neccisarilly double your losses. You'll still take a hit though. That's why like I said, you gotta know what you are doing and be damn good at it so that you sell your shares at the right time, everytime. It requires watching the market and your shares very closly, doing research from that particular stock over the past year or two because most of them will have a pattern and you can better predict the right time to sell. It's risky business, but it can work.
 
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