Sharos Only - Horse Racing Question

[Boner_18]

Using the morning line as a guide I was wondering what odds you would need to have on the fave (I'll Have Another) to create a +ev situation betting on every horse. Essentially I think I can get better return on IHA tickets than the odds he closes at because I am on site and can sell a $2 win ticket for ~$10 as memorablia if he wins.


1 1 Street Life (KY) 3/C L J Lezcano 126 C C Brown 12/1
2 2 Unstoppable U (KY) 3/C L J Alvarado 126 K G McPeek 30/1
3 3 Union Rags (KY) 3/C L J R Velazquez 126 M R Matz 6/1
4 4 Atigun (KY) 3/C L J R Leparoux 126 K G McPeek 30/1
5 5 Dullahan (KY) 3/C L J Castellano 126 D L Romans 5/1
6 6 Ravelo's Boy (KY) 3/C A O Solis 126 M J Azpurua 50/1
7 7 Five Sixteen (KY) 3/G L R Napravnik 126 D A Schettino 50/1
8 8 Guyana Star Dweej (KY) 3/C L K J Desormeaux 126 D Shivmangal 50/1
9 9 Paynter (KY) 3/C L M E Smith 126 B Baffert 8/1
10 10 Optimizer (KY) 3/C L C S Nakatani 126 D W Lukas 20/1
11 11 I'll Have Another (KY) 3/C L M Gutierrez 126 D F O'Neill 4/5
12 12 My Adonis (KY) 3/C L R A Dominguez 126 K J Breen 20/1

 

[Boner_18]

Sharos only. I'm increadably sharos.

 

[Vegas Dave]

I'm no sharo, but considering odds are para-mutual, any mathematical equation you came up with based on morning lines wouldn't do you much good.

Just bet Union Rags to win, that's +EV.

 

[MonkeyF0cker]

Interesting thread. Unfortunately, it's unfeasible now that I'll Have Another has scratched. But here's how you would approach it...

Convert each win pay of every other horse into its respective probability. This yields the following percentages listed for each horse ordinally:

1: 0.076923077
2: 0.032258065
3: 0.142857143
4: 0.032258065
5: 0.166666667
6: 0.019607843
7: 0.019607843
8: 0.019607843
9: 0.111111111
10: 0.047619048
12: 0.047619048

Adding them up, yields an overround of 0.716135751. So, we have a 0.283864249 underround (1 - overround). We convert that percentage to a line and get odds of (+252.2811 US) or 2.522811/1. So, if you had those odds on I'll Have Another, you'd breakeven betting every other horse at the morning line odds.

 

[Saulty]

I'm not a sharo but usually when your horse wins, places or shows you make money.

 

[Boner_18]

Interesting thread. Unfortunately, it's unfeasible now that I'll Have Another has scratched. But here's how you would approach it...

Convert each win pay of every other horse into its respective probability. This yields the following percentages listed for each horse ordinally:

1: 0.076923077
2: 0.032258065
3: 0.142857143
4: 0.032258065
5: 0.166666667
6: 0.019607843
7: 0.019607843
8: 0.019607843
9: 0.111111111
10: 0.047619048
12: 0.047619048

Adding them up, yields an overround of 0.716135751. So, we have a 0.283864249 underround (1 - overround). We convert that percentage to a line and get odds of (+252.2811 US) or 2.522811/1. So, if you had those odds on I'll Have Another, you'd breakeven betting every other horse at the morning line odds.

Exactly what I was looking for. Would have had easilly that selling the $2 win ticket for $10 - 20 as a memorabilia piece. Oh well. C'est la vie.