Screw Easter - it's MLB opening day!

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Mudcat

Mudcat

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Blessed art thou.
 
:yes: Muddy, Yanks -105 or Sox -115 tonight?
 
I see pinny is starting their mlb ml's at a 6 cent line. breaks very early to 7 and then 8,9,10. but still a bit lower juice than usual.
 
They must be trying to win back some Matchy customers.
 
can't wait. I always get excited come opening day. I'm even going to watch the game tonight and I despise both teams. But of the two, I'm going to have to with Boston at home. Right now they are -1.5 +170.
 
MrMonkey
:yes: Muddy, Yanks -105 or Sox -115 tonight?
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I'll say Sox.

I don't start betting MLB moneylines until about 20 games into the season so I won't be betting this. But just for the sake of discussion, if I were to pretend that we were already there, Boston would meet the criteria for a wager.
 
Mudcat
I'll say Sox.

I don't start betting MLB moneylines until about 20 games into the season so I won't be betting this. But just for the sake of discussion, if I were to pretend that we were already there, Boston would meet the criteria for a wager.
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would you bet the run line or stay on the ml?
 
OK, I don't know much about the bases for betting but why go for the +line when it more or less is a -110 bet at ML? From readings last year seems to be alot of bettors for baseball have said run lines in long run won't make you money? Baseball betting (like the game itself) seems to be so complex?
 
all i know is that every time i bet the run line I lose. that + number looks real good but I can never seem to hit it. guess those crazy guys in vegas know what they are doing.
 
Ryn lines typically are considered less efficient than mls, though pinny is taking 30k on tonights rl (normally limit is 10) and only 20 on the ml.
 
Swarmy
would you bet the run line or stay on the ml?
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I would bet the ML. That runline does not qualify as +ev by my criteria but the ML does (if we pretend that we are 20 games into the season).
 
MrMonkey
OK, I don't know much about the bases for betting but why go for the +line when it more or less is a -110 bet at ML? From readings last year seems to be alot of bettors for baseball have said run lines in long run won't make you money? Baseball betting (like the game itself) seems to be so complex?
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Speaking for myself I have a helluva time finding any +ev angles for MLB runlines. It is a big puzzler for me. I feel like there should be all kinds of stuff. They are bet with such ignorance. When I look at the discussion from people betting runlines I see so many more bad ideas than usual. I feel like lines driven by such bad thinking should have more soft spots than most things.

But so far I have found diddley-squat.

But I don't doubt there are people out there who sort/analyze data in different ways that are successful at it.



For me though, it is my Moby Dick. I have invested some considerable time into hunting RL's and so far the RL's have won.

:mudcat:
 
Look at totals & ML's, Mudcat. You need to know the fair value of the game, total, and a run in that particular game to find an edge in the RL.
 
It can be done with Bayesian inference.
 
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