Question about match-fixing in soccer

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pally

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How prevalent do you think this is? I realize it is a completely different issue than in the states because of the legality of betting, as well as the income disparity issues for players.

What are your thoughts on this?

I was spurred to wonder because of the Slovenia/Serbia Euro Qualifier today. I got what I thought was a good line on Serbia, a big fave, at pick -320. Later there was suspicious, to me, movement the other way, and Slovenia did win 1-0.

Not saying I thought it was fixed, but it got me thinking - how likely do you think it would be that a Qualifier involving Slovenia and Serbia is fixed?
 
pretty sure you still closed good, what made the movement suspicious to you? Those lines move like crazy.

I think anyone who has the answer to what you are looking for would not be sharing it on a message board.
 
Chalky road favs in soccer are bad plays. In fact road favs are bad plays in football, basketball, baseball, hockey. And a pick line at -320 vs two teams that made the WC last year? How did you think that a -320 pk line was a good bet pally?

And the game wasn't fixed. 90% of the fixes in soccer are on draws and out of those 50% are not pre-arranged fixes. Sometimes both teams line up with formations so not to lose resulting in a draw. This is what I termed an unintentional fix.
 
And pally what you call "suspicious" line movement was related to starting lineups being made available before kick off. If you find out Kobe Bryant wasn't playing for the Lakers after you made your play and the line moved 5 points would you call the movement suspicious? Give me a break!
 
Thanks for your responses guys

what made the movement suspicious to you? Those lines move like crazy.

Right, well, yeah it wasn't insane movement, just strong movement back the other way, and I was just watching it on Pinny not a collection of places. I guess I mostly thought it was suspicious because when I think of Serbia I think of serious, serious, low-level organized crime that would be a prime place you would find things like soccer match-fixing.

So, when I saw strong late movement in the opposite direction, and then the 1-0 win, I just got to thinking. I'm not saying I think the match was fixed, I just got to thinking.


I think anyone who has the answer to what you are looking for would not be sharing it on a message board.

I don't think this is true at all, I'm just looking for general wisdom on soccer match fixing. I could comment pretty well on fixing in NBA, NCAAB, NFL, NCAAF and MLB just from general knowledge from having followed it for so long and read about various scandals and seen various studies, etc etc


Chalky road favs in soccer are bad plays. In fact road favs are bad plays in football, basketball, baseball, hockey. And a pick line at -320 vs two teams that made the WC last year? How did you think that a -320 pk line was a good bet pally?

Hmm well I am not an experienced soccer bettor by ANY means, I only just started in with it a while ago. But I thought -320 PK was a good line at the time I took it. The ML was -148 and the total was low, something like 2 O -135/+120 or something like that.

Then the line went into the -150s and stayed there for a while until it crashed down into the -120s. But I thought a -320 PK line at that time for a line in the -150s and that total was pretty good.

Yes of course I know all about road faves and faves in general in US sports but not soccer. It seems to me that there are a lot more legit PK -200 and over type of lines with value, but I have only been following it closely for a little while.


And pally what you call "suspicious" line movement was related to starting lineups being made available before kick off. If you find out Kobe Bryant wasn't playing for the Lakers after you made your play and the line moved 5 points would you call the movement suspicious? Give me a break!

Yeah, the suspicion I had had as much to do with the teams involved as the line movement itself.

Just wondering out loud about match-fixing in soccer, for the reasons I gave before - much more legalization in Europe, and teams from countries where average salary is $300 a month or whatever it may be in some of those places.
 
I don't think this is true at all, I'm just looking for general wisdom on soccer match fixing. I could comment pretty well on fixing in NBA, NCAAB, NFL, NCAAF and MLB just from general knowledge from having followed it for so long and read about various scandals and seen various studies, etc etc

fair enough I misinterpreted your question then. I consider 'general wisdom' worthless banter, but to each his own. I guess that's why wally wants to head butt me and not you.
 
fair enough I misinterpreted your question then. I consider 'general wisdom' worthless banter, but to each his own. I guess that's why wally wants to head butt me and not you.

Well, I think there is general wisdom regarding "dangerous" situations in sports regarding fixing, and "not dangerous". It might not be general wisdom to the general public but it would be to the general reasonably informed betting public.

Like for instance, in college basketball, if you have a big point spread involving a talented but hoodlum team, that would be a situation where i would be wary of ever taking the favorite on the spread.

Or, in other situations in college basketball or football, in general you are much more likely to see point-shaving than to see a team throw a game outright on the Money Line.

In the NBA you might have situations such as the ones outlined in Donaghy's book, or other situations where the NBA "wants" certain outcomes, just stuff like that.

Or in college basketball, certain conferences I would advice being much much more careful about than others, like the one with Tennessee St and Austin Peay, I can't even fukin remember what its called, oh yeah the OVC.

In MLB, fixing outcomes would be a lot tougher, and for all intents and purposes, something you don't have to ever worry about until further notice.

Stuff like that is general wisdom, but important to know, and I'm looking for that stuff in soccer.

Like what, if any, is the risk in a WC Qualifier in a game involving Slovakia and Serbia, and what is the most likely way it is to be fixed? Would Serbia throw a game outright as a big fave? Is PK better or worse than a ML? Stuff like that
 
I found this:



FIFA investigate mаtch-fixing

With billions of dollars in illegal soccer bets exchanged every year and allegations of match-fixing rife, the punters are often at the losing end whereas the bookmakers are having the last laugh.

The mafias and underground syndicates are often behind the fixing of soccer matches (also called rigged games, fixed games).

FIFA, the governing body of world soccer, decided that it had to act to protect the game from corruption after being shaken by recent match-fixing scandals in Germany, Italy and Brazil.

Since Asian World Cup qualifying campaign started, the fixed match issue has gained more urgency. Gambling is widespread in Asia and Asian leagues have been battling match-fixing for years.

In early year 2008, Interpol announced the results of a crackdown on illegal soccer gambling across Asia. Interpol\'s secretary general, Ronald Noble, told a conference in Singapore that the authorities had shut down 272 underground gambling dens handling $650 million in illegal bets. Feldner said, "The gray market in Asia - this is a big problem."

Unlike individual sports, team sports like soccer are more difficult to fix.

"There are 22 players, 4 officials, 2 coaching staffs, substitutes - that\'s a high number of people you have to get at to fix a game," said Herren, the FIFA spokesman. "Plus, the more people you try to bribe, the more chances you have of being exposed."

But the more people you bribe, the more chances you have of the outcome you want.

William Gaillard, a spokesman for UEFA, the governing body of European soccer, said: "One person is not enough - you need to bribe three or four at least. The games we have doubts about are never the big games - those are too expensive to fix. What are you going to offer a player who makes €4 million a year? It\'s always lower division games, maybe where two clubs have already qualified, a game that\'s not televised."

As we all know, it is easier to lose a game than to win it. Hence, goalies and defenders are the more obvious targets to bribe when you fixed a match.

Late bets, heavy bets, late and heavy underdog bets; high or low scoring; surprising draws; wide swings in the quality of play; odd or inexplicable referee calls - all of these can prompt monitors to take a closer look at a match.

FIFA\'s president, Sepp Blatter, has often pointed to referees as a possible weak link because they are the lowest-paid people on the field. FIFA has a monitoring system that evaluates referees\' performances and removes those prone to error, said Herren, the FIFA spokesman, but "not even the best ref is protected from making a blunder."

At the 2006 World Cup, security guards were posted outside the referees\' hotel, no direct outside calls to their rooms were allowed, and FIFA doubled their tournament pay to $40,000. Herren expects refs to earn even more at the next World Cup.

1. If the goal came very early during the first ten minutes of kick off, then it is possible that the match is fixed. They will score at the most unimaginable timing like within 30 seconds or 3 mins are common signs.

2. Pay attention to the speed of both team players. The team that will lose will tend to run at slower pace than the opposition. Less reluctance and no determination to win.

3. Another point to note is the team that is fixed to win they will be proactive and fight with all their might to get to the ball. Whereas, the one that is fixed to lose {note this also refers to team that gives ball but unable to clear the Asian Handicap} will miss even inches infront of the goal post. Sometimes the team that is fixed to lose will even score for the next team that is the own goal or they will appear disorganised at the defence showing no effort in stopping the attack.

4. Not all footballers are great actors so pay close attention to their body language, they will display great agonies while missing clear cut shots but their eyes are secretly laughing away some even had difficulty in controlling their facial expression ,occasionally they subconsciously look into the camera before diverting their eyes swiftly away.

5. The coach decision to remove key players from the team substituting with a less superior player. Consider this why would a coach remove that particular key striker that has just scored the crucial goal and try to defend the 1 goal lead well within the early 50 or 60 mins. However, it may be justified if the player is suffering from an injury.

6. Biased and unfair refeering decision. Legitimate goals are claimed as off-side, or a clear penalty given as no foul are common signs of fixed matches. Giving unneceessary penalty to a team that when there is no professional foul.

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What to do when you suspect it is a fixed match?

1. Avoid betting heavy stakes during live betting. Try to observe 1st half before you bet, it is advisable to bet during the 2nd half as that is the time when the bookies tricks reveal itself.

2. Do not trust what you see in the 1st half as what is obvious is often a trap. For example, a team can have many attacking opportunities in 1st half through free kicks, corners etc. But during 2nd half they can easily concede a goal and lost the match!

3. The odds posted are often set in a way to trap the novice punters ,so try to put yourself into the shoes of a bookie and you will see a much clearer picture.


Past Soccer News of Fixed Matches

May 9, 2008

Portuguese champions FC Porto have been barred from competing in next season\'s Champions League over a match-fixing scandal, European football\'s governing body UEFA said on Wednesday.

"The UEFA Control and Disciplinary Body has decided FC Porto will not be admitted to the 2008/09 UEFA Champions League after studying a matter involving alleged bribery of referees in Portuguese domestic matches in 2003/04," UEFA said in a statement.

A brief statement on the club\'s website read: \'FC Porto and their president have been notified by the Portuguese Professional Football League (LPFP) of the accusations and investigations concerning matches between FC Porto and Estrela da Amadora, and Beira Mar and FC Porto.\'

Last month, Porto were found guilty by the Portuguese league of fixing two league matches in 2003/04, the same season they won the Champions League - the world\'s richest club competition.

As a result the club was fined 150,000 euros, docked six points, the club\'s president Jorge Pinto da Costa was suspended for two years and Boavista were relegated to the second division for their part in match-fixing.

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April 26, 2008

The Malaysian FA has threatened to suspend major domestic and international competitions in the country over a match-fixing scandal that has rocked local football.

The Football Association of Malaysia (FAM) deputy president Khairy Jamaluddin said he would have no hesitation in halting June\'s Malaysia Cup and an Under-23 international tournament next month should more match-fixing cases emerge within the next two weeks, The Star newspaper reported on Saturday.

Malaysian police and the Anti-Corruption Agency are investigating alleged match-fixing in the Super League and on Thursday detained five current and one former player from the Sarawak team.

Also under investigation is fellow Super League side Police FA for "poor performances". Sarawak are bottom of the 13-team league while Police are 11th.

"The nation\'s image will be tarnished if any of the national players are hauled up by the authorities during this international (under-23) tournament," Khairy was quoted by The Star as saying.

This is the third big match-fixing scandal to hit Southeast Asia in April.

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April 3, 2008

Asian Football Confederation chief Mohamed bin Hammam on Thursday called match-fixing a "cancer" that is destroying the game after an illegal approach to players in Singapore.

His comments follow allegations that two players of Maldives side Victory SC were approached on Tuesday night to throw their AFC Cup match here against Singapore\'s Home United.

Singapore\'s Corrupt Practices Investigation Bureau and the AFC are now investigating after being alerted by the Football Association of Singapore (FAS).

Home United won Wednesday night\'s game 2-1.

Local reports said Argentinians Marcos Aguirre and Luciano Theiler were approached by an unidentified man at the Royal Hotel where the Maldives team was staying.

They declined his offers to throw the match and reported the matter to team officials who in turn informed the FAS.

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February 14, 2008

LIAONING Guangyuan striker Zhao Zhipeng was jailed for seven months on Thursday morning for accepting bribes from his coach for his part in match-fixing S-League matches last year.

He had pleaded guilty on Wednesday to receiving a bribe from Liaoning team manager Wang Xin to help lose a match against Gombak United by more than three goals on Nov 1 last year. For his part, Zhao, 26, received $2,000 after Liaoning lost the match to Gombak by 0-5.

Six of his team-mates were also charged last week - the largest number of players allegedly involved in a \'kelong\' scandal since the S-League games started in 1996.

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January 27, 2008

Benin\'s German-born coach Reinhard Fabisch first raised the alarm when he revealed he\'d been approached by a man last Saturday claiming to represent a Singapore-based betting syndicate trying to \'buy\' Benin to fix their opening Group B game with Mali.

Fabisch said the man who came up to him at the team\'s hotel in Sekondi had told him he represented a company based in Singapore which could fix games across Africa.

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August 9, 2007

In an interview published Aug 9 in Le Parisien newspaper, Domenech was quoted as saying that there had been a "bought referee" for a match between France\'s youth squad - which he once coached - and Italy during a qualifier for the Sydney Olympics.

"I\'ve rarely been so ripped off," Domenech was quoted as saying. "When you get fooled once, there\'s always a doubt (afterward). There are arrangements in Italian soccer."

Uefa president Michel Platini had warned that Domenech would be sanctioned unless he could provide proof of the alleged match-fixing.

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May 10, 2006

The Turin club is at the centre of an investigation by the Italian football federation (FIGC) after telephone conversations recorded last season between two Juventus directors and high-ranking FIGC officials were published.

In the conversations, Juventus general director Luciano Moggi tells Pierluigi Pairetto, who at the time was responsible for selecting referees for the FIGC, which officials he would like assigned for his team\'s Serie A matches.

Juventus ended the season by winning the championship for a 28th time.

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February 4, 2005

It began on Jan. 19 when four Berlin referees reported to the German Soccer Federation, the DFB, that they suspected another referee, 25-year-old Robert Hoyzer, had manipulated match results.

After an investigation by the DFB, Hoyzer admitted that a betting ring run by the Croatian mafia paid him to fix the results of three lower-division games and a German Cup first-round match.This has put the country reeling from its biggest soccer scandal in more than 30 years. This revelation comes a year before when the country is to host the World Cup.

Press reports claimed that Hoyzer received between $65,000 and $85,000 for his "favors" - a large sum of money for referees, who receive $4,500 per German-Cup game and $2,000 per lower-division game.

Hoyzer also reportedly has linked other officials to the scandal. On Friday, a referee in the top division of German soccer, the Bundesliga, denied allegations that he, too, had fixed matches.

"I regret my behaviour profoundly and I excuse myself to the German soccer federation, my referee colleagues and all soccer fans", said the 25 year old. In a TV interview he said that other people connected to soccer were involved and confirmed he had received a five-digit sum for fixing matches.
 
Found this from Reuters:



Soccer Match-fixing on the rise, 24 countries affected

Some 24 European countries have been affected by match-fixing and up to 100 games have been manipulated in the past five months alone, said a betting watchdog official on Wednesday.

Speaking as an expert witness at a match-fixing trial in Bochum, Germany, Sportradar CEO Carsten Koerl said match-fixing was on the rise given the financial incentives involved.

"Manipulations are increasing," said Koerl, whose company tracks betting patterns and works with FIFA and UEFA.

"In the past five months we assume that between 70 and 100 games in Europe were manipulated."

He said, however, that given the tens of thousands of games being played each year the number of affected matches represented only a very small percentage.

"There is a clear development in this (betting activity) given that nowadays there are many more possibilities to earn money from this," Koerl said.

He did not say which countries were involved or what leagues were affected.

Four suspects are on trial after a 2009 German police operation unearthed a European match-fixing ring with more than 200 suspected members who fixed or tried to fix around 200 matches across the continent, including three in the Champions League.

European soccer\'s governing body UEFA at the time had called it the biggest betting scandal in Europe.

Initial estimates had put the illegal gains at about 10 million euros but court officials said the figure was just "the tip of the iceberg."

Further investigations have also implicated German football players from lower leagues.
 
while that information sounds fun to have when chatting with friends, I still don't see why that general wisdom is anything more than banter. If you have a good idea of which matches/games/whatever are fixed, you can easily figure out which side is the right side, and therefor should be a millionaire and wouldnt share. If you want to know which leagues have a higher liklihood of having a match in the market being fixed, then look at limits, look at salaries, etc. this seems like common sense. if you want to not bet on leagues that have a chance of having outside influences not reflected in the market, don't bet.