djiddish98
The Dunk
- Since
- Jun 6, 2010
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Intuitively, one would think that crossing the 3 twice would be about the best thing you could do in an NFL teaser, even if you have to waste points crossing the 0.
Yes, there is likely some "push decay" in crossing that second 3 (from +2.5 to +3.5), since we are farther from the true line. However, I think (looking at some data) that crossing that first -3 from -3.5 is about the most valuable move you can make. It makes up for the "push decay" on the second 3.
However, looking again at historical spread data shows that if I teased every -3.5 to +3.5, I would not cover enough to give an edge on a 7pt teaser.
Why is this? Is my data bad? I've noticed that -3.5's have under performed a good deal against the spread. Should they really be -3, and hence, we lose the value of crossing that first 3? Anything else?
Yes, there is likely some "push decay" in crossing that second 3 (from +2.5 to +3.5), since we are farther from the true line. However, I think (looking at some data) that crossing that first -3 from -3.5 is about the most valuable move you can make. It makes up for the "push decay" on the second 3.
However, looking again at historical spread data shows that if I teased every -3.5 to +3.5, I would not cover enough to give an edge on a 7pt teaser.
Why is this? Is my data bad? I've noticed that -3.5's have under performed a good deal against the spread. Should they really be -3, and hence, we lose the value of crossing that first 3? Anything else?