MLB related handicapping tools

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Thought maybe it would be nice to have a thread dedicated to handicapping MLB.

Here is a helpful site that I just found out about:


https://www.baseballinjurytool.com/


With the largest collection of freely available data on injuries and medical time lost for professional baseball players back to 2002, you should be able to find what you need here. Currently there are 4,492 different players, 16,115 different transactions, and 422,138 total days lost with more records added all the time. The main goal was and always will be to easily communicate data about why baseball players miss time from injuries and medical conditions. Fantasy baseball players, baseball enthusiasts, and baseball researchers can then easily use this data for their particular need.


The site is hopefully very easy to use. You can view information by two methods. First is by searching for a player with any part of his name by either the small form on the left hand menu or on the player page. The second method (coming soon) is a customizable search for most fields in my database. You can find both of these links on the menu to the left.


If you have any other questions or suggestions, please feel free to check the FAQ or email me at corey AT baseballinjurytool DOT com.
 
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/20...beyond-the-box-score-catcher-defense-rankings


Best Overall: In agreement with the Fans Scouting Report, the 2010 BtB catcher defense rankings see the Cardinals' Yadier Molina as the defensively most valuable catcher in baseball at 14.6 runs above average. Even with a .299 wOBA, that makes him a very valuable player. The second-best was a surprise to me: Ivan Rodriguez at +9.6 runs. I'm still not sure that signing really made sense for the Nationals given his age, but he can still bring it behind the plate (if not beside it). Carlos Ruiz was #3 overall at +9.2 runs, and given his good bat (+15 runs according to FanGraphs), this was a monster season for a guy who doesn't get that much national attention.

Worst Overall: Out of the 120 catchers listed here, Mike Napoli was pretty bad at number 113 overall and 5.5 runbelow average, so that might make some sense out of the Angels disillusionment with him, except that in relatively equal playing time, his replacement, alleged defensive stalwart Jeff Mathis, in in a three-way tie for baseball's worst with Ryan Doumit (of course) and Francisco Cervelli at -9.4 runs each. The Yankees had a real defensive machine behind the plate in 2010, with Jorge Posada clocking in at -8.6 runs.

Caught Stealing, the Best: Yadier Molina is (unsurprisingly) the best here at +8.6 runs, I don't know why teams run on him. The Rockies' (now the Jays until [hopefully for them] he turns down arbitration) Miguel Olivo gunned down plenty of runners, too, at +7.1 runs. It will be interesting to see who signs him, given his regression at the plate after a hot start and continued issues with blocking pitches. Cleveland's Lou Marson was a disaster at the plate this season, but he probably isn't really as bad as he looked, and if he really is this good defensively (+5.3 runs in throwing out basestealers, +7.3 overall) he will be a good backup for Carlos Santana, at least.

Caught Stealing, the Worst: No big shocker here, with Ryan Doumit at -8.5 runs. It wouldn't surprise me if he never saw extended time behind the plate again. Second-worst is Victor Martinez at -6 runs; as many have noted, teams looking at him in free agency really do need to consider just how much longer he'll be viable as a catcher when estimating his value. Jorge Posada is not surprise at -5.5 runs, but Kurt Suzuki is at -4.7.

Passed Balls & Wild Pitches, the Best: This is where Carlos Ruiz made his bones in these rankings, at +7.2 runs. Rod Barajas gets lumped in with the Bengie Molina crowd a fair bit, and while that is understandable on one level, a .310 wOBA isn't bad for a catcher, and he is good defensively, at +6.7 runs in blocking pitches. Pudge Rodriguez is usually noted for his throwing arm, but was more impressive at blocking pitches according to these rankings at +5.4 runs.

Passed Balls & Wild Pitches, the Worst: Jeff Mathis, defensive wunderkind, fills out the bottom of the rankings at -5.6 runs. He must call a heck of a game. Passed Ball Legend Miguel Olivo gives most of his value in the running game back in this part of his game at -4.9 runs. Adam Moore had a typical 2010 Mariners performance here at -4.5 runs.
 
I just finished my base running projections for 2011, which is basically just an estimate of true talent base running over the last 4 years. I don’t think I do any age adjustments (even though they are obviously important).

As you can see, the value of many sluggers is significantly reduced due to their slow/poor base running, and many otherwise marginal players (and good ones) have lots of base running value.

Also, there are some things that I don’t include in valuing base running speed and talent, like advancing on WP and PB, etc. So, you can probably add 20% or so to these numbers. The SD in base running skill that I get is 2.1 runs, which means that most players are plus or minus 6 runs. It also means that the very best or worst are worth a little over half a win or so, which is not insignificant. In fact, you could add or dock from a few players’ salaries 2 or 3 million (in FA dollars) a year just for good or bad base running!

Here are the top and bottom 5 base runners in true talent over the last 4 years, in runs per 150 games, which is also close to what we would expect in 2011.

Best

Figgins 6.8 (wow!)
Bonifacio 4.4
Kinsler 4.2
Josh Hamilton 3.5 (is this guy good or what?)
Rasmus 3.4

Worst

(Kotchmann -6.4 not sure if he is even playing anymore)
Thome -5.9 (DH’s have to run the bases too!)
B. Molina -5.5 (The 3 Molina brothers are a combined -12.1!)
Posada -5.5
Lowell -5.3
Fielder -5.1
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/inde...t_baserunners/



Not sure if this is factored into most WAR metrics... anybody know for sure?
 
good stuff, will look further into.

two weeks till pitchers and catchers report