MLB Plays 4/13/11

[FairWarning]

I think it's around 95%, durito.

You find value in 90% of the games? How much does it have to be off for it to be a play? Just curious as some of the math cappers and I are at odds.

 

[MonkeyF0cker]

You find value in 90% of the games? How much does it have to be off for it to be a play? Just curious as some of the math cappers and I are at odds.

A few cents of value is enough for me. Not everyone is the same, however.

 

[wal66]

MF'r, why does the market whole (3, 5, 10) off an even line? I mean I am sure the number of pushes are minimal but if evey line was on the 1/2 (3.5, 5.5 10.5) there would only be winners and losers?

 

[MonkeyF0cker]

Because a lot of people don't like to pay prices likes -160, Wally, and you'd see it pretty frequently in that scenario.

 

[Potato]

Potato's favorite bet is the +1.5 (-150 to -175).

NO ONE takes those sides who's an idiot.

 

[wal66]

Obvious when you point it out MonkeyFocker, another case where I fixate on the line and not the price.

 

[Tron]

Potato's favorite bet is the +1.5 (-150 to -175).

NO ONE takes those sides who's an idiot.

YES

FLA +1.5 today for instance. No one wants to touch that.

 

[Tron]

YES

FLA +1.5 today for instance. No one wants to touch that.

Wish I had posted this in my MLB thread

Sharps, was FLA +1.5 +EV? They ultimately won by 1 run.

 

[MonkeyF0cker]

Wish I had posted this in my MLB thread

Sharps, was FLA +1.5 +EV? They ultimately won by 1 run.

Need to know the price to say for sure.

 

[Tron]

-170

 

[MonkeyF0cker]

Not a good bet. It's approximately a -2.07% edge according to the market. About a -2.31% edge according to my model.

 

[Archie]

you had me at hello