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Is 300 Plays A Serioulsy Small Sample Size?

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Cougar Bait

Cougar Bait

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What about 358?

Let's just say for example you've made 358 plays and you were up 76.61 units.

Would it be fair to say that is a large enough pool of picks to assume someone knows what they are doing?





Or is it better to be a complete jackass half wit fuktard and bust someone's balls for having a good day/week/month? :jerk:

Just wondering.
 
Of course it's a small sample size.

And +76 units when your standard play is 5 units is nothing spectacular. It's better than I'm doing this season but don't fool yourself into thinking that it's not a small sample size.


If your standard unit was 1 and you were up 75 units on May 22nd you would be my fucking hero.
 
As durito said, it depends on the odds and the units. You might be betting a lot of heavy chalk and getting very lucky with it (or conversely betting a lot of dogs and having an unnaturally large % of them hitting). You could be utilizing a martingale system where one bad streak bankrupts you. And if you're wagering 20 units per play then you're essentially only 4 plays over 50%. But if it's betting 50/50 lines at one unit a bet then over 358 bets it being up that many units suggests it's more down to judgement than luck.
 
Cougar calm down

What does the Best Bet have to do with what is a small sample size and what is not?


I'm not being a fuck Cougar. You're going to look silly if you keep implying you're a baseball handicapping god because you're up 75 units in May and your standard play is 4-5 units (approx).

End of discussion as far as I'm concerned.

I was seriously fucking rooting for the Padres dude
 
Daft I think my plays are fairly well balanced...best bet board is kinda looked at around here as the measuring stick. By that board, basically no one here wins.

I don't think I am a gambling God.

This is my first year capping bases and I am way up.

I think it's kinda shitty, that's all.

Doesn't seem like anyone wants others to win around here.
 
Cougar Bait
BTW 5 units is not my standard. You need to look no further than my thread, which is 14 pages long.

Most plays are between 3-5 units. I would guess 70-80%
Click to expand...

I guess "unit"s mean something different to everyone, but aren't they supposed to be an indicator of your average bet size? As in most plays are one unit, with the occasional two unit play for a big game or three units for a huge one?

If you are betting say $300 - $500 a game almost every game, why is $100 your "unit"? Shouldn't it be more like $300 per unit?

Guess it doesn't matter too much, I just consider 3-5 units a play-of-the-year type of bet, not the vast majority.

Congrats on the run, by the way.
 
I can be a real asshole sometimes no doubt. You won't get much of an argument from me on that.

Like I said though, if you were up 75 units on May 22nd making 1 unit plays I would kiss the ground you walk on. But 75 units making 3,4 and 5 unit plays just does not make me jizz in my pants.

So it has nothing to do with people not wanting other to do well. Couldn't be further from the truth.


Go Padres. :dancer:
 
See Dave has a point here, and so does everyone I guess.

Not fantastic being up what I am up at this point, and don't have my units worked out to science yet or anything.

Just go with my gut on amounts wagered and haven't been sticking to any standard guidelines.



Padres up 2-1 8th inning
 
Cougar Bait
Most plays are between 3-5 units. I would guess 70-80%
Click to expand...

Let's call your average bet 4 units and let's revalue your new 1 unit equal to 4 old units; you are now 19 units up over your 358 bets. If we apply your bets to a binomial distribution (which is more suited to 50/50 bets rather than MLB moneylines but I'm more trying to make a point here) then two standard deviations are ~19 units. That means that if you take 100 gamblers who are no better than a coin flip, 10 of them will have a record of +19 units over 358 bets.

So, in answer to your question, it is too small a sample size. But well done though, seriously.
 
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