Have an ev question

[Patty]

Jazz were +3 tonight at -110 for example. If you got jazz +3.5 -115 would that be +ev?

 

[smitch124]

Its less -EV than +3 -110 but still -EV

 

[senco78]

how do you calculate EV?

 

[Dunder]

how do you calculate EV?

In a case like this, the easiest way would be to use the RBS half point calculator. Using the above example.if you assume that the closer +3 is the correct line, then the correct no vig line for your +3.5 bet would be -108

your EV is therefore:

108/208 = 0.5192 (probability of your bet hitting)
divided by
115/215 = 0.5349 (implied probability of the line you took)

minus 1

i.e. (0.5192 divided by 0.5349) = 0.9707
minus 1 = an EV of -2.92%

 

[senco78]

In a case like this, the easiest way would be to use the RBS half point calculator. Using the above example.if you assume that the closer +3 is the correct line, then the correct no vig line for your +3.5 bet would be -108

your EV is therefore:

108/208 = 0.5192 (probability of your bet hitting)
divided by
115/215 = 0.5349 (implied probability of the line you took)


minus 1

i.e. (0.5192 divided by 0.5349) = 0.9707
minus 1 = an EV of -2.92%

wheres the 208 and 215 coming from?

 

[Dunder]

wheres the 208 and 215 coming from?

The easiest way to calculate the probability from US style odds is as follows:

Where odds are less than +100 e.g. -110

odds (110) divided by odds + one hundred (110+100)

Where odds are more than +100 e.g. +120

100 divided by odds + one hundred (120+100)

 

[reno cool]

how do you calculate EV?

just want to add that EV is simply the probability of an event happening vs its payoff. So lets say something has a 50% chance of winning and pays +105. For every 2 $100 bets you make you would win 1 and lose one... returning 205 for 200 bet and EV of 2.5%.
So handicapping is basically estimating the probability more accurately than the next guy(or book). Here they are assuming that one of the lines is accurate which is kind of