ATP Santiago: Tennis in Chile

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RogueScholar

RogueScholar

I love you, Chord!
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Now that we're back to my bread and butter, clay court tennis, I figured just in case there was any interest, I'd keep a thread here for each tennis tournament I find some good action on. If I'm placing this in the wrong spot, please accept my apologies and move it.

I'd love to do write-ups for all these picks, but realistically that's only going to happen sporadically, when I find myself inspired to write. I'll try to include bullet points for the more obscure players, though.

So, we're playing the Round of 16 in Santiago today, and I love Pere Riba in the first match. I found -140 at Matchy a few minutes ago, but it's dropping again.
  • Riba's opponent, Joao Souza (very distant relative of mine) had to go through the qualifying rounds just to make the main draw. He's played four matches in four days in the zenith of the South American summer. Fatigue was noticed already in his match yesterday, a three-setter vs. Greul.
  • Excerpt from Joao Souza in his post-match interview yesterday: "It was very painful, I suffered all I possibly could. But it was good, I learnt a lot, and it showed me I have to play this kind of tournament against these guys."
  • Riba defeated a close friend and common doubles partner in Santiago Ventura in the first round of the tourney, and was playing in Colombia last week so he's well-acclimated to the conditions/season.
  • Souza just received a wildcard entry into his hometown tournament, which starts on Sunday. Chances are we catch him looking to conserve energy now so that he has some spring in his step for family and friends in Costa do Sauipe next week.
Pere Riba -140 (ATP Santiago) vs. Joao Souza
 
lets make some money scholar. thanks for the writeup
 
ok lets play...found -138 at 5dimes
 
Riba dropped the first set, 4-6, thanks to a couple breaks he gave Souza while his first serve just couldn't find the box. Seems like he worked past that pretty well and even got one of the breaks back before deciding to just move forward to the second set. I remain optimistic, it's not like Souza is blowing anyone away.
 
Sorry guys, Riba had no heart today whatsoever. His first serve just wasn't dropping in, and the frustration just completely took him out of his gameplan. I'll make sure the next one makes up for this faux pas.

Souza d. Riba 6-4 6-4
 
RogueScholar
Sorry guys, Riba had no heart today whatsoever. His first serve just wasn't dropping in, and the frustration just completely took him out of his gameplan. I'll make sure the next one makes up for this faux pas.

Souza d. Riba 6-4 6-4
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No need to apologize here for posting a loser, it's impossible to win at this game. :surrender:
 
I dunno about all that anymore, Herman. I'm finding that the longer I'm in the game, I'm certainly learning enough to at least never have to post-up again. When I share a play anymore, it's because I truly believe I've found a quantifiable edge and want to share the opportunity. I've got a positive ROI over 1900 tennis wagers in the past 12 months so at least I won't be accused of posting plays just to see my name in print...
 
I can't believe RS posted this play, some guys just post to see their name in print!!

Hi RS:grin:
 
smitch124
I can't believe RS posted this play, some guys just post to see their name in print!!

Hi RS:grin:
Click to expand...

Hey Smitch, good to see you too.

GameLiveStaff
Thanks for this post!
Click to expand...

My pleasure, guys. I'm more than happy to contribute. If I get some free time, I'll be breaking down next week's Brazil Open in a blog here. I've got a soft spot for that tournament, it's the first one I ever won a futures bet on.
 
I like that play too, KR. Lu had no business getting past Nieminen, and Klaasen looks to be feeding off the home crowd. Even if it doesn't cash, it's major value.
 
F'ing Tennis. So much for that one...

Have any plays tonight, RS?
 
Actually, I have a play for the very first match of the morning. I really like Stephane Robert over Dustin Brown in Johannesburg. I know everyone is fawning over Brown right now, with his Jamaican accent and devil-may-care charm, but Robert finally cracked the Top 100 for the first time in his career last week and I think I see evidence of it giving him a mental edge so far in this tourney. Brown is all serve and no return, so Robert just needs to be a consistent counter-puncher to walk away with this one.

Stephane Robert (ATP Johannesburg) -120 (BetPhoenix) vs. Dustin Brown
 
Another good sign is that the guys at TennisInsight are mostly on Brown. Currently- 16 to 5. I usually fade those guys in a spot like this, LOL. Count me in.
 
Yeah, you can count me amongst the 5, but I'm sure you already noticed.
 
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