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what is the correct play here

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choo
im not getting in to what I do personally, but I guarantee I would look down upon how gregm 'chased' steam.

id be willing to be proven wrong in private and even with data im not sure you prove anything, but for now ill agree to disagree. chasing is my side girl anyway :kiss4you:
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I would guarantee that if you looked down on how greg did anything, you'd be a bit of a wanker and would make a fool of yourself. Just because some people don't choose to blast what they know publicly, doesn't mean they don't know anything. ;)

I saw the topic, saw you guys lose bets, saw Potato wonder why the line was bouncing on Sharapova and yet your Kvitova bet still lost. Saw you guys lose Woz even though her price shortened 24 cents less than the opener at Pinny. Thought of Nadal's closing 30 cents higher tonight and yet he still won. And so I thought I'd comment even though I rarely bother any more because apparently everyone knows everything even though in this one particular sport, in this one particular thread, I can see they don't.

To me I really don't care what anyone does. It's not a competition to me of who has what figured out. It was just a response. GL with your bets.
 
Oksana
I will say choo, chase steam in tennis and you will be sunk. I'm not being snarky but you will be... end of story. The numbers back me up and I know how much you like numbers. If you want a first hand account of how little steam means in tennis over an extended period of time from someone who chased it, ask gregm :)
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I think that is a gross oversimplification. People talk about "chasing steam" as if it were this well-defined approach. I bet you 5 Canadian dollor that if you ask a bunch of steam chasers here to post their plays for today in the NBA, you'd get loltastically different sets of picks, even contradictory ones.

Just saying.
 
Matty
I think that is a gross oversimplification. People talk about "chasing steam" as if it were this well-defined approach. I bet you 5 Canadian dollor that if you ask a bunch of steam chasers here to post their plays for today in the NBA, you'd get loltastically different sets of picks, even contradictory ones.

Just saying.
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I'm talking solely about tennis. And I've said that many times across both forums. Other sports are much different and that's why people get into trouble when they try to apply that to tennis because what traditionally may work for them, won't. I'm not saying that subjectively... it's a fact. And even ignore the strategy of when people steam chase and how shonky their methods may be... go with the strategy of beating the closer at Pinny. That's where the majority of my stuff comes from. I was just lucky to have someone highlight massive moves in matches so I could get numbers on that.

In tennis if your sole method is to beat the closing line, you're going to lose. If you beat the closing line in every tennis match offered at Pinny - every match - over a year, you will end up in the hole.The problem is though that these aren't -110 lines so again, if you just tried to use the fade strategy that I realise durito was being sarcastic about but would actually work to some extent, you'd need quite a big bankroll to sustain the hits with losses on the $1.13 lines for example.

Anyway, enough of that. Just happy to see more people getting into a sport I've loved to bet for many years :)
 
Oksana
I'm talking solely about tennis. And I've said that many times across both forums. Other sports are much different and that's why people get into trouble when they try to apply that to tennis because what traditionally may work for them, won't. I'm not saying that subjectively... it's a fact. And even ignore the strategy of when people steam chase... go with beating the strategy of beating the closer at Pinny. In tennis if you try, you're going to be 4-6 percent off for the men if you bet every match offered (which no one in their right mind would do) and almost 9% off for women. The problem is thought that these aren't -110 lines so again, if you just tried to use the fade strategy that I realise durito was being sarcastic about but would actually work to some extent, you'd need quite a big bankroll to sustain the hits with losses on the $1.13 lines for example.

Anyway, enough of that. Just happy to see more people getting into a sport I've loved to bet for many years :)
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Bolded part - exactly my point. The ROI% numbers that you quickly edited out :p mean nothing from a bettor's perspective, only a bookie's (what is the Pinny closer calculated against to get these figures anyway? Opener? Peak price?)

Common.
 
Matty
Bolded part - exactly my point. The ROI% numbers that you quickly edited out :p mean nothing from a bettor's perspective, only a bookie's (what is the Pinny closer calculated against to get these figures anyway? Opener? Peak price?)

Common.
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I edited out the numbers because I'm not doing anyone else's work anymore. Someone wants those figures, go figure shit out for themselves. Or don't.

But they DO mean something unless you have the 6th sense to know when to pick and choose your matches. This thread is a perfect example that supposed sharpity sharps, don't.
 
If we were lost on an uncharted island, how many here would think there is a very real need to eliminate the others to prolong the amount of available food and water for themselves and who here would realize that even with a limited supply there would be a greater chance of survival as a group?
 
wal66
If we were lost on an uncharted island, how many here would think there is a very real need to eliminate the others to prolong the amount of available food and water for themselves and who here would realize that even with a limited supply there would be a greater chance of survival as a group?
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Wakky, your 2nd option is ideal but unrealistic. Considering the emails and PMs I've received - even from people in this very thread - asking for advice about tennis, and then when you see that it really is a solo adventure no matter how much you try to forthrightly help people with stuff you've already spent the time doing the work on even though they've made it clear they will do absolutely nothing to help you, I can finally understand why the tinfoil hatters in the TT aren't so tinfoily after all when they say they're not willing to say a word. There truly isn't a point. Everyone's going to do their own thing anyway, which is great, so hopefully we all make money no matter how we go about it. That's all I can really say at this point.
 
Oksana, I submit that while it’s unrealistic to convince a diverse group that they are better collectively than they could ever be separately.

The way I look at this and make no mistake, I don’t expect others to jump on board but I see that we have some who truly understand the various concepts of chasing steam, we have some who have a real grasp of statistical data and how to mine for it, we have those who actually watch the games and have a grasp of match-ups, we have some who understand the complexities of home field/court/ice advantages, we have some who not only remember to look at injury reports but understand which injuries impact which games more.

My point is yes, there are those who will do just fine individually but common sense should tell them that collectively could probably do even better.

Paranoid secrecy, arrogance and greed for some I guess.
 
wal66
If we were lost on an uncharted island, how many here would think there is a very real need to eliminate the others to prolong the amount of available food and water for themselves and who here would realize that even with a limited supply there would be a greater chance of survival as a group?
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The correct answer is that the first person to find the food would stash it away for themself. See Hurley (2004).
 
Hurley's_stash.JPG


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gregm
What an asshole comment. I hope oksy doesn't give you any data , you got it all figure out dont you choo. Monaco here we come.

Like that saying , "God we love it when our friends fail", I dont , but you are not a friend so keep grinding.
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i dont want oksy's data and didn't ask for it. keep interpreting things incorrectly guess why you suck at 'steam' chasing.

MonkeyF0cker
Solution: histogram line vs. observed %'s and RMSE or logistic regress/Chi square test against openers and closers

Who wins?
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this doesnt answer whether my 'steam' bets on tennis make money but ill let everyone keep thinking so simplistically.

Oksana
I would guarantee that if you looked down on how greg did anything, you'd be a bit of a wanker and would make a fool of yourself. Just because some people don't choose to blast what they know publicly, doesn't mean they don't know anything. ;)

I saw the topic, saw you guys lose bets, saw Potato wonder why the line was bouncing on Sharapova and yet your Kvitova bet still lost. Saw you guys lose Woz even though her price shortened 24 cents less than the opener at Pinny. Thought of Nadal's closing 30 cents higher tonight and yet he still won. And so I thought I'd comment even though I rarely bother any more because apparently everyone knows everything even though in this one particular sport, in this one particular thread, I can see they don't.

To me I really don't care what anyone does. It's not a competition to me of who has what figured out. It was just a response. GL with your bets.
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believe whatever you want, I don't care either. GL with your move.
 
Oksana
I would guarantee that if you looked down on how greg did anything, you'd be a bit of a wanker and would make a fool of yourself. Just because some people don't choose to blast what they know publicly, doesn't mean they don't know anything. ;)

I saw the topic, saw you guys lose bets, saw Potato wonder why the line was bouncing on Sharapova and yet your Kvitova bet still lost. Saw you guys lose Woz even though her price shortened 24 cents less than the opener at Pinny. Thought of Nadal's closing 30 cents higher tonight and yet he still won. And so I thought I'd comment even though I rarely bother any more because apparently everyone knows everything even though in this one particular sport, in this one particular thread, I can see they don't.

To me I really don't care what anyone does. It's not a competition to me of who has what figured out. It was just a response. GL with your bets.
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Oskana I enjoy your posts! Please don't be scared to post or just assume that choo will come in and well be choo.

Also you are after me on the ban list that RJ won't let me enforce so you have nothing to worry about! :happyface:

Oksana
I'm talking solely about tennis. And I've said that many times across both forums. Other sports are much different and that's why people get into trouble when they try to apply that to tennis because what traditionally may work for them, won't. I'm not saying that subjectively... it's a fact. And even ignore the strategy of when people steam chase and how shonky their methods may be... go with the strategy of beating the closer at Pinny. That's where the majority of my stuff comes from. I was just lucky to have someone highlight massive moves in matches so I could get numbers on that.

In tennis if your sole method is to beat the closing line, you're going to lose. If you beat the closing line in every tennis match offered at Pinny - every match - over a year, you will end up in the hole.The problem is though that these aren't -110 lines so again, if you just tried to use the fade strategy that I realise durito was being sarcastic about but would actually work to some extent, you'd need quite a big bankroll to sustain the hits with losses on the $1.13 lines for example.

Anyway, enough of that. Just happy to see more people getting into a sport I've loved to bet for many years :)
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How do you think pinnacle makes money off tennis then?
 
Oksana
I'm talking solely about tennis. And I've said that many times across both forums. Other sports are much different and that's why people get into trouble when they try to apply that to tennis because what traditionally may work for them, won't. I'm not saying that subjectively... it's a fact. And even ignore the strategy of when people steam chase and how shonky their methods may be... go with the strategy of beating the closer at Pinny. That's where the majority of my stuff comes from. I was just lucky to have someone highlight massive moves in matches so I could get numbers on that.

In tennis if your sole method is to beat the closing line, you're going to lose. If you beat the closing line in every tennis match offered at Pinny - every match - over a year, you will end up in the hole.The problem is though that these aren't -110 lines so again, if you just tried to use the fade strategy that I realise durito was being sarcastic about but would actually work to some extent, you'd need quite a big bankroll to sustain the hits with losses on the $1.13 lines for example.

Anyway, enough of that. Just happy to see more people getting into a sport I've loved to bet for many years :)
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i wasn't being sarcastic. i don't bet tennis as I know nothing about it and you and others have told me it's not very efficient, thus chasing numbers isn't gonna do much for me.

however, you can't say that will continue. tennis seems to be getting more popular for betting and that will lead to greater efficiency.
 
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