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Elementary line movement question for sharps

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Tron

Tron

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I'm on the Reds +116 (Bodog) and I really like O9 (-105)

If I'm seeing things correctly, the market is moving against me on both of these plays.


Does this typically mean that I'm dead in the water on these? If yes, a short answer on why would be great.

It's a question I've always wanted to ask but either forgot or was embarrassed to.

We have some sharp guys here who are nice enough to drop knowledge and it's always appreciated.


Feel free to go beyond a yes or no answer. :shakeit:
 
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Line movement against you doesn't mean your bet is dead in the water although it does mean that you don't have as good a bet as you did when you placed it since you've essentially paid a higher price for it. It's like going to Target yesterday and buying an iPod for $199 and then finding out today they are priced at $179 - the value of what you purchased has reduced, but you still have an iPod.
 
I'm certainly no sharp, but you have to know why they are moving. Are the Reds resting players? Does Atlanta have someone coming back? If its just perception because of Willis, sit back and let people bet Atlanta. The total play is probably based on Willis sucking. The trend on Sunday nights has been home team and under.
 
logically it looks to me like an over play. aside from the sunday night trend, just looking at the lineups, ballpark, weather, and starting pitchers looks like a potential double digit game

I haven't looked at the umpires

Polaroid
Line movement against you doesn't mean your bet is dead in the water although it does mean that you don't have as good a bet as you did when you placed it since you've essentially paid a higher price for it. It's like going to Target yesterday and buying an iPod for $199 and then finding out today they are priced at $179 - the value of what you purchased has reduced, but you still have an iPod.
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not comparable

the line moving against you means more than simply saying that you overpaid
 
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Daft
My O9 play? No.

I like the over for other reasons. One of them being that the combined ERA's are 7 yet the total is 9 and it appears that the under is getting a lot of money.
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The under is getting a lot of at because the road team has mailed it in many times on sunday nights.

It's nice to get the best price but I will give up a little to make sure I get the right lineups, etc. Nothing more frustrating than betting overnights then finding out players are sitting.
 
If games were decided by line movement before the games started they would send the players and fans home and forfeit the game. I can see Dusty Baker in the locker room right now. "Boys the line movement is killing us. Lets call it a day and go home. I have already congratulated Freddie Gonzalez for the win".
 
Fu Manchu
daft im sure youve seen the threads on line movement before where pavy has weighed in. please disregard anything he has to say on this topic.


for an engineer, he sure doesnt seem to know a whole lot about mathematics.
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Engineers don't use mathematics. Statisticians and mathematicians use mathematics. After 20 years of doing it common sense prevails.
 
offshore mlb lines tend to move when pinny moves. and on game day pinny moves when someone bets the limit 50k. so while it might be some exceptionally rich square (they should probably know this and move it less) odds are some group or very knowledgable individual is betting against you. You got the same line as pinny has now, so i wouldn't say you are dead in the water at all, it could always moved back before game time.
 
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