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Andre Ethier is sexy

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Archie
I really think over a full season having 5 starters (if they stay healty) in the top 25 in 2010 in the national league in era ad whip is pretty impressive and will keep them in most games
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You realize that ERA is essentially meaningless and that they play half of their games in a pitcher's park, right? They won't come within 10 games of the playoffs this year.
 
Archie
I really think over a full season having 5 starters (if they stay healty) in the top 25 in 2010 in the national league in era ad whip is pretty impressive and will keep them in most games
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WHIP and ERA are pretty much irrelevant when trying to ascertain the quality of pitching. Going into his game today Matt Garza had a 0-2 record over 4 starts with a 4.74 ERA and a 1.66 WHIP but he is statistically one of the top 5 pitchers in the National League. And he took the loss again today despite an excellent performance.
 
Archie, CB requested MF to do this in his vid so blame him for the abuse coming your way! I know you know your stuff but the great starting pitching comment took me for a surprise too!

Park Factors take on Dodger Stadium
-94

92 R
95 HR

This means that in the years 2007-2010, Dodger Stadium produced 92 runs for every 100 runs produced in the average MLB park, and 95 HRs for every 100 homers, for a mean Park Factor of 94.

This is an extreme pitcher's park.

Also their starter team ERA which you value is 3.92 ranking them 8th in the NL so they better step it up to get five guys in the top 25 by year's end! And if that happens it means the 15 other teams combined will only place 20 starters in the top 25? I might be a homer but I believe my Phils might take 3-4 of those spots?
 
MrMonkey
Archie, CB requested MF to do this in his vid so blame him for the abuse coming your way! I know you know your stuff but the great starting pitching comment took me for a surprise too!

Park Factors take on Dodger Stadium
-94

92 R
95 HR

This means that in the years 2007-2010, Dodger Stadium produced 92 runs for every 100 runs produced in the average MLB park, and 95 HRs for every 100 homers, for a mean Park Factor of 94.

This is an extreme pitcher's park.

Also their starter team ERA which you value is 3.92 ranking them 8th in the NL so they better step it up to get five guys in the top 25 by year's end! And if that happens it means the 15 other teams combined will only place 20 starters in the top 25? I might be a homer but I believe my Phils might take 3-4 of those spots?
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good stuff, thanks I need to be more sabermetric minded with my pitchers when capping games my old fashioned ways. I mostly look at recent pitch count, last years innings compared to innings pitched previous years. OBP against the pitcher, Whip, ERA, k/9 gb/fb ratio. batting avg against opponents, and Babip to see if the pitcher is getting lucky or unlucky and then other situational splits.

other times it is point and click, on my decided tail and fade kinda guys

I'd love to read more info on which stats you value most, use most, where you get them ect.


MR. M, I didn't say great starting pitching. I said and meant deep starting pitching. In that I think they'll mostly be in every game and if the offense gets going beyond Kemp and Ethier they could be a contender for a wild card or even beat out SF/Colorado.
 
Polaroid
WHIP and ERA are pretty much irrelevant when trying to ascertain the quality of pitching. Going into his game today Matt Garza had a 0-2 record over 4 starts with a 4.74 ERA and a 1.66 WHIP but he is statistically one of the top 5 pitchers in the National League. And he took the loss again today despite an excellent performance.
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Not doubting you but I see a guy who has given up 33 hits over 24 innings, has a BABIP of .417, and guys have a .317 average against him. Also see he's getting more GBs this year than his norm of FBs but everything else hit appears to be a line drive! Only 2 good things I see is no HRs allowed and lots of KKs.

From your expertise then what stats should I use in maybe judging a pitcher better when betting on his team? :dunno:
 
Archie
good stuff, thanks I need to be more sabermetric minded with my pitchers when capping games my old fashioned ways. I mostly look at recent pitch count, last years innings compared to innings pitched previous years. OBP against the pitcher, Whip, ERA, k/9 gb/fb ratio. batting avg against opponents, and Babip to see if the pitcher is getting lucky or unlucky and then other situational splits.

other times it is point and click, on my decided tail and fade kinda guys

I'd love to read more info on which stats you value most, use most, where you get them ect.


MR. M, I didn't say great starting pitching. I said and meant deep starting pitching. In that I think they'll mostly be in every game and if the offense gets going beyond Kemp and Ethier they could be a contender for a wild card or even beat out SF/Colorado.
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OK Archie not great I get it and you see my post to Polo requesting help! I'm far from an expert but the 5 guys in the top 25, I doubt it but possibly in that ballpark! Just looking at something to help me with totals but hasn't so far the parkfactor thing!
 
keep in mind that Garland and Lilly didn't pitch in that park all of 2010

In just about any stat you look at, those guys are workhorses, and pitch consistently, and were in the top 20-30 of NL starters in most major categories.

I'd love to see where they rank in more important sabermetrics, but i'm winding down. a project for manana
 
MrMonkey
Not doubting you but I see a guy who has given up 33 hits over 24 innings, has a BABIP of .417, and guys have a .317 average against him.
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Hits (and hence batting average) are generally a function of luck and the quality of the defense rather than any reflection of the pitcher. The BABIP is the batting average of balls in play which is largely influenced by the defence and also random variation; BABIP should generally revert to a pitcher's career numbers, .471 is unsustainable through the season.

MrMonkey
Also see he's getting more GBs this year than his norm of FBs but everything else hit appears to be a line drive!
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Yes, a lot of line drives and that is the reason for the high BABIP - they are hard to field (for an out) and so naturally the higher the % of line drives, the higher the BABIP and AVG. That should also revert back to career averages for Garza as time goes on.

MrMonkey
Only 2 good things I see is no HRs allowed and lots of KKs.
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Similarly should the HR/FB rate should increase over time; home runs are generally considered to be a function of the number of fly balls allowed rather than anything the pitcher is doing.

MrMonkey
From your expertise then what stats should I use in maybe judging a pitcher better when betting on his team? :dunno:
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The WAR (Wins Above Replacement) metric is a good start or use the FIP or xFIP version of the ERA - this is based upon the aspects of the game that the pitcher can control such as the number of walks and strikeouts. FIP gives credit for pitchers preventing home runs whereas xFIP assumes that they are random and purely a function of the number of fly balls allowed. A pitcher with an ERA of 5 and a xFIP/FIP of 3 is a good pitcher who has just been unlucky.

There could be an argument that Garza is pitching poorly to allow more line drives but his very high strike rate and very low K/BB rate suggests this is not the case.
 
Archie
keep in mind that Garland and Lilly didn't pitch in that park all of 2010

In just about any stat you look at, those guys are workhorses, and pitch consistently, and were in the top 20-30 of NL starters in most major categories.

I'd love to see where they rank in more important sabermetrics, but i'm winding down. a project for manana
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More or less what you stated happened tonight! Garland pitched very well but not enough hitting and as it appears all year long so far the bullpen let them down! Good night buddy!
 
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