Matty Rain's 2024 MLB Betting Thread

Tron
Hmmm I've done some reading on Kelly but it's been a while. I really don't have a grasp of what my win probability is based on my "system".

In the past I just ball parked my increase in unit size as the BR grew.

I'm just going to just adjust every day and stay at 1% of my implied BR which is $2K
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Allow me to calculate your P-value based on your past results. BRB.
 
So with 52.19 units profit over 707 plays, your edge is 7.38% per bet. Now, your P-value is about 2.5%, which means that the odds your results are due to chance are 1 in 40. So we're not all that certain that you can maintain that 7.38% edge over the long term. If I were you I would round down to 5%.

In short, it means that at full Kelly, if you were to place only one coin-flip bet at a time, you would bet 5% of your bankroll on every play. With two coin-flip bets on separate events, you would bet 4.75% on each as per the calculator. That is, indeed, extremely aggressive.

I would do half-Kelly if I were you, but it all depends on your risk tolerance, how much money you're starting with and all that.
 
I just noticed I hit 50K posts with the above ^^ 🥳

matty 50k
 
Matty
So with 52.19 units profit over 707 plays, your edge is 7.38% per bet. Now, your P-value is about 2.5%, which means that the odds your results are due to chance are 1 in 40. So we're not all that certain that you can maintain that 7.38% edge over the long term. If I were you I would round down to 5%.

In short, it means that at full Kelly, if you were to place only one coin-flip bet at a time, you would bet 5% of your bankroll on every play. With two coin-flip bets on separate events, you would bet 4.75% on each as per the calculator. That is, indeed, extremely aggressive.

I would do half-Kelly if I were you, but it all depends on your risk tolerance, how much money you're starting with and all that.
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Outstanding explanation, Mattyballs! Thank you for that :bowdown:

Given all of that, I'm going to click it up to 2% per play (slightly below half Kelly). I have a good comfort level with that.
 
Brewers tie it up late! Common ONE TIME
 
@Matty, you started at $10 per play. What have you adjusted up to?
 
I'm still betting 10 bucks. I only have about 900 bucks split between 3 books right now, some balances get low after a full slate of plays.

This is still just an experiment. I'm placing these bets and posting on here to keep myself honest. When running simulations it's easy to cherry-pick data that fits your hypothesis. This is real world data.

matty keeping honest
 
Tron
Given all of that, I'm going to click it up to 2% per play (slightly below half Kelly). I have a good comfort level with that.
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What would happen if you pushed it to the limit, full kelly bundy? you think you would tilt?
 
Full Kelly means you pretty regularly lose half your bankroll. It's not for emotional gamblers, and we're all emotional gamblers.
 
Matty
YTD 110-104 +8.33u $1084.80

Friday May 3

MIL +106 :greencheck:
PHI -148 :greencheck:
PIT -180 :redx:
NYM +112 :redx:
KCR -116 :greencheck:
SDP -108 :greencheck:
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4-2 +1.26u (+$12.98)

YTD 114-106 +9.59u $1097.78

:irishluck:
 
Our P-value is down to 12.5% after yesterday's plays, meaning there's a 1 in 8 chance that our results are due to chance. This is trending down. We'll start getting excited once our P-value reaches 1%.

YTD 114-106 +9.59u $1097.78

Saturday May 4

NYY -155
 
Adding

KCR EV
HOU -140
LAD -174
 
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Baseball players sure do like to get injured.
 
YTD 114-106 +9.59u $1097.78

Saturday May 4

NYY -155
KCR EV
HOU -140
LAD -174
 
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