Why wouldn't Bautista win the Derby?

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stevek173

stevek173

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I am missing something. Just seems like the guy is swinging the bat far better than anyone going on 1.5 years now.

Toronto too easy a park to hit em in or something?

<----not at all sharp in baseball. Would like to hear why this isn't the case from those who are sharp.
 
Well the Bookmakers did place him as the Fav didn't they?

HR derby can be quite a crapshoot

and Hitting Home Runs vs real pitching in real game situations is DIFFERENT than batting practice pitching and trying to hit a Homer.

also some of the big hitters get tired after going crazy in the first round...



but yeah Batting Practice is a Different Animal. I suppose if you knew how these guys hit in BP it would help alot..... also who is bringing a personal pitcher?

Bobby Abreu still holds alot of the the HR derby records and I don't think he was really a guy known for hitting HR's in real games that much..


there are guys in MLB that can crush BP pitching that aren't really HR hitters and vice versa... Ichiro comes to mind..

I'd go with the experience that Ortiz has though.....
 
he's the favorite

derby is a crapshoot. he's never been in it

Toronto is a home run park. third in home run park factor this year

but that's irrelevant. he's been installed as the favorite over derby vets like ortiz and fielder. what more do you want? Odds on him seem about right.
 
stevek173
Toronto too easy a park to hit em in or something?
Click to expand...

rogers centre ranks up there in terms of home run parks based on recent stats. but i don't buy into a lot of that being strictly a park's dimensions, altitude, etc. so much of it depends on the lineups that are fluid from one year to the next and certainly dependent upon the lineups that a general manager is building over any given period of time.

archie is right about it being your basic crapshoot. it's like oddsmakers hanging a -120 number on the national league tomorrow night without knowing a damn thing about starting pitchers or pitching rotations.

here's a list of the ballparks and the homers hit in them the last two seasons (2009-10). note that target field only has one year of stats to use. you could probably win a few drinks at a bar based on some of these numbers. for example, how many people would guess that 19 more homers have been hit at nationals park the last two years than minute maid park, which is generally thought of as a home run haven?

Yankee Stadium - 460
Rogers Centre - 421
Miller Park - 397
Citizens Bank Park - 390
Rangers Ballpark - 389
Camden Yards - 383
US Cellular Field - 382
Chase Field - 375
Great American - 371
Coors Field - 359
Fenway Park - 355
Tropicana Field - 347
Angel Stadium - 331
Wrigley Field - 321
Comerica Park - 320
Nationals Park - 312
Minute Maid Park - 293
Sun Life Stadium - 291
Kauffman Stadium - 276
PNC Park - 273
Progressive Field - 272
AT&T Park - 268
Safeco Field - 260
Turner Field - 258
Dodger Stadium - 255
Petco Park - 254
o.co Coliseum - 248
Busch Stadium - 242
Citi Field - 240
Target Field * - 116
 
Where did you get these numbers BayBad?

that is very interesting stuff.

5 Al East teams in the top 12 HR Parks

could be a bit of the chicken in Egg thing...

are the AL east boppers causing the numbers to be skewed?

or are the Ball Park Factors causing the numbers to be skewed?

I'd say BOTH
 
Archie
Where did you get these numbers BayBad?
Click to expand...

from one of the best-kept secrets on the web, and a site that i've contributed to with research over the years: retrosheet.org

there certainly are 'park factors,' only i've long thought relying solely on them will get your ass in a bind in the long run. imagine switching the infields between the mariners and yankees. safeco would look far more home run friendly and yankee stadium would barely crack the top 10.
 
Remember the first few months of Yankee stadium...... how much of a launching pad it was?

thanks for the site

I've heard of it before, not really ever used it myself... gonna have a look see around
 
minute maid park used to be a homer haven

not so much lately though
 
park factor adjusts for the teams, so you can't go "oh yankee stadium ranks high because the yankees have great power hitters". nah, yankee stadium inflates homer numbers, especially for lefties with that short rf porch

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor

2011 texas, cleveland, toronto, white sox, arizona (yankees are 8th)
2010 white sox, colorado, yankees, toronto, baltimore (rangers are 7th)
2009 yankees, angels, rangers, white sox, baltimore

pretty much what it boils down to are US Cellular, Yankee Stadium, and the Ballpark in Arlington are the three biggest homer parks, but toronto and baltimore are on the next tier


the one weird note is progressive field in cleveland. it wildly fluctuates. it's not consistently a homer park at all, but in this year's limited sample, it's second

I don't see the point of looking at total homers in a stadium, because that's heavily impacted by the hitters and pitchers. You need to have it adjusted for the players so you can see the true park effect
 
Enigma
minute maid park used to be a homer haven

not so much lately though
Click to expand...

a lot of that goes back to the lineups. the old astrodome saw homers on the rise near the end due to a couple of factors, one that most people who didn't go there the last few years would know about. the astros also had a great lineup the last couple of years of the 'dome and the first couple of years in minute maid, which were also the height of the so-called steroids era.

you're right about not looking at just the HR column, or any single column of stats for that matter. just a part of the overall consideration. it's funny how so few fans/bettors will mention us cellular and rangers ballpark in their top 5 despite the fact they are consistently top home run parks (at least since the chisox moved fences in sometime around 2000-01).
 
I remember how they used to call it ten run field or home run field (back when it was enron)

I also remember once Caminiti hit a popup down the left field line, slammed his bat down in anger, and then watched it clear the fence

short down the lines, coupled with the hill in the outfield, made it a pretty good hitter's park back in the day. haven't paid close attention lately
 
yeah, the first year it was open (2000), there were 266 homers; the next year, 230. there haven't been more than 192 hit in a season since. some of that was steroids induced, i reckon, some of that was houston had some suck-ass arms that first season (jose lima and chris holt were the most-used starters).

the short seats in left are what gets most of the talk, but the funny thing is a home run that lands in the 4th-row or deeper would've been a homer in the astrodome that was always thought of as a pitcher's paradise. the deep alleys and center field take away homers, and in my opinion the 'cheapest homers' land in the first few rows of right field.
 
I forgot to mention that the bases were loaded in that caminiti story


so many threads people started about the derby
 
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