Shocker! Actual Gambling Question

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wal66

wal66

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I don't care if you are an actual pro or just someone like myself who has an opinion about everything based on your own experience. I like a good cross reference to situations.


You cap a game and the number you come up with is dead on what every market has the game at. Common wisdon tells you to avoid this game but you can feel in your bones that even with no margin for error you have the right side. The line is on a whole number not a 1/2 in this situation, so do you still juice yourself and adjust the line in you favor or do you ride it out. Keep in mind you really want to play this game so a "No Play" isn't an option.

I know there are volumes written about certain numbers like 3,7 and 10 but without getting overly involved with that higher level stuff I am just trying to get a feel for how many are fudging on whole number lines.
 
MrMonkey, if your viewing notice the font size.
 
I once hit a $2 trifecta at Monmouth Park Simulcasting Sam Houston with the #'s 1,7, 3 for $5k.

Bought a car.

The license plate #? through no doing of my own "UR173M"

Probably not what u wanted Wally, true story though.
 
I had an ex whose license plate said U24 MXE. It was funny because she was 24 at the time and Mexican. LOLZ!!!

WALLAYYYY!!!
 
If you're not the type to study push frequencies, then I think you're going to hurt yourself more often than not buying half-points.
 
How do you know which side is the right side if you've capped it at the market price?
 
Wal I always bet with my guts. I started capping some soccer games yesterday morning. I cut it down to the 15 games I liked most. After debating for 2 hours which to bet I couldn't narrow it down anymore. I ended up playing all 15 games. In the end 2 of them lost and one of them pushed. But if you asked me before the games started to tell you which ones would lose I wouldn't have given you the correct answer. So if you like a game and is right on the number play it!
 
durito
How do you know which side is the right side if you've capped it at the market price?
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Did you not read the post? You feel it in your bones.
 
wal66
You cap a game and the number you come up with is dead on what every market has the game at. Common wisdon tells you to avoid this game but you can feel in your bones that even with no margin for error you have the right side. The line is on a whole number not a 1/2 in this situation, so do you still juice yourself and adjust the line in you favor or do you ride it out. Keep in mind you really want to play this game so a "No Play" isn't an option.
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The answer is: you're a happy degenerate. Make your bet, have a beer and enjoy the game. You're not going to make money.
 
Durito I was gonna give an example of say Dallas -3 @ Tampa. Say I really feel the +3 with Tampa is solid but I capped the game right on the number for Dallas, what would you do. Keep in mind the person really wants this game and a no play isn't an option for him.

Personally I never buy up. I will buy the hook off a line but never up. Just me, doesn't mean I'm right and there is no logic to my reasoning. Also when it comes to college football which as I've said is the only sport I take seriously I have a built in 3.5 point variance that a game must meet in order to qualify as a play. So this example I gave wouldn't work for me if it were a college game but it's just an example.
 
Say I really feel the +3 with Tampa is solid but I capped the game right on the number for Dallas, what would you do.
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This just doesn't register with me. If I bet on who I thought looked good I'd be broke.

If the market line is +3 -110 and you can get +3.5 -120 go for it. But, the only books that let you do that probably won't pay you.
 
MrMonkey
Tell me one more time which is which again please? TY!
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Normal font is not multi-posted. Sometimes I like to keep my question that could make me look less smart than I want to be thought of localized. You guys already know I can be a retard some over there think I am smarter than I actually am. I kind of like that though. I would really like to be a brainiac but a cool one. You know like I could solve the most complex equations while Crip Walking at the same time. That would be cool.
 
durito
This just doesn't register with me. If I bet on who I thought looked good I'd be broke.

If the market line is +3 -110 and you can get +3.5 -120 go for it. But, the only books that let you do that probably won't pay you.
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Kind of along the lines of what you said Durito is the reason I force myself to live by my 3.5 rule. If I don't have at least a 3.5 advantage over the actual line then I pass. My question was more for those who get caught up in playing with a feeling over an edge. Obviously if you cap a game out and it's right on the number there is no advantage either way and should be a pass.

You know, now that I am reading back over this, my question was all wrong, my thought process was all wrong, my example limiting you to not pass was improper, this is why there are more Balls threads than gambling question threads I guess.
 
Wally it's OK to be wrong. Now make a Crip Walk video and all will be forgiven.
 
I've attempted a couple Bread but I get self-conscious about posting them. No rythem, no flexibility, big mutha, gimp knees just makes for a very awkward video. I would look like the William Hung of dance.
 
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