Hooligans Sportsbook

C, D, MF, et Al. CAUTION! LONG POST

  • Start date •
  • Replies
    499 Replies •
  • Views 20,385 Views
Follow
mcbaseball10

mcbaseball10

Outnumbered
Since
Jan 27, 2010
Messages
7,586
Score
1,023
Tokens
0
Choo, Durito, MF'er and any others willing to help me learn:

My friend is using a bookie that is operating off the lines from the daily newspaper. I have to get the bets in during the day and can't wait until close to game time because it's not a well oiled system.

My analysis below may be completely flawed, and if so please don't be afraid to point out the obvious to me.

RJ instructed me to open a pinny account so I can buy points to determine the value of the points that I am getting with the stale lines. I bet on these plays with the pinny line at 4:00 pm in parenthesis:

Boise St. -12 (-15) buying 3 pts -189=65.4% implied probability
Idaho +1 (-1.5) buying 2.5 pts -174=63.5% implied probability
Depaul -3 (-5) buying 2 pts -163= 61.98% implied probability
Missouri St. -3.5(-6) buying 2.5 pts =63.64% implied probability
CS Full -7(-9) buying 2 pts=61.09% implied probability

If you have taken the time to read all of this and could answer these questions:

1) Am I using the implied probability correctly by using the odds from pinny?
2) Should I determine bet amounts in relation to the implied probability?
3) Choo talked about understanding why a line is moving. Could you give me some tips on understanding when to chase a move?Are the line moves in the middle of the day reliable enough to use regularly for my picks?

Congrats to all that made it to the end of the post and TIA to those that can help me make some extra holiday CASHE.
 
pinny overcharges for buying points so those are probably inflated.

i would just use the half pt calc at sbr (actually i would just give durito the account :) )

http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-tools/half-point-calculator/

put the pinny spread in up top and then change the odds next to the spread you are getting to -110 to see the edge.

yes you should bet more the more off the line is.

you can also just estimate it this way: basketball half pts are worth approx 2% each, so a full point off is around a 54% play. take any line that is 1 or more off.

i wouldnt worry about why its moved or worry that its gonna move back, you have a pretty big edge here, you will win.
 
variance can suck, so dont get in over your head or anything. lots of plays will probably keep the guy clueless (at least until you start winning).

for football, best to use the half pt calculator as all pts are def not equal. ie a -2.5 when the market is -3.5 is a huge edge were a -4 when its -5.5 is bleh.
 
that is probably a little high, the calculator will overstate values the further you get away from the spread. but it doesnt matter, these are huge edges. i wouldnt even waste my time calculating them, just bet and hope to not run bet.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.