World Cup 2010 – Is The Fix On?
The Group A match last Thursday pitted the 1998 World Cup winners and 2006 runners up France against Mexico where France, after a first game draw against Uruguay, needed at least to avoid defeat to leave the passage to the next round purely in their own hands. However, Mexico proved formidable opponents as they scored their first win over France in seven lifetime meetings with a 2-0 victory following second half goals courtesy of Javier Hernandez, a new face at the Manchester United next season, and a Cuauhtemoc Blanco penalty.
After an opening day draw with Uruguay this left France with a single point after two games, tied with South Africa, while Uruguay and Mexico have four points each which means France are in severe danger of exiting the competition after the final Group A matches which kick off at 10am EST on Tuesday. The way things stand, a draw in the South Africa Vs France match will ensure, despite the result the other final Group A match between Mexico and Uruguay, that neither of them will progress to the next round; only a win for either South Africa or France will give them a chance to progress. However, if the Mexico/ Uruguay game ends in a draw then whatever happens between France and South Africa is irrelevant since both Mexico and Uruguay will qualify. This is sounding awfully like an example of game theory but game fixing doesn't happen right?
And surely it's not going to happen in the World Cup after the Friday press release from FIFA noting that they will be monitoring betting patterns for the last round of World Cup matches to ensure that there is no match fixing with Marco Villiger, the FIFA Legal Director, noting that games between teams that have been eliminated against teams that can benefit from meeting different teams in the next round with specific outcomes will be monitored most closely and FIFA have even opened up a hotline for people to report possible match fixing. It's a pity they're not closely following matches where a favorable result will see both teams progress to the next round. This makes the Mexico/Uruguay tie all the more interesting - not because a certain result will guarantee a certain opponent in the next round, but because a certain result will ensure that both teams will reach the next round. But it seems like that's not what FIFA is looking for, perhaps no-one there has ever seen A Beautiful Mind.
The Mexico/Uruguay spread is listed as a pick 'em at Pinnacle with Mexico being slight favorites at -119 against Uruguay at +110, but it is the moneyline which is more curious. Mexico are listed at +286, Uruguay at +346 but a draw is the -121 favorite. Generally for a Pinnacle pick 'em World Cup soccer line, the odds for a moneyline draw would be around +220 which is a heck of a difference from -121. Shop around and you can get better value at Bodog who currently have the draw listed as a -110 favorite.
It's almost as if the market expects Mexico and Uruguay to both play for a draw to ensure qualification and, on the basis that betting odds are an accurate prediction of actual probability, it seems that will be the most likely case. Now, has anyone got the number of the FIFA match fixing hotline? I've got a call I need to make.
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Originally Posted by shantystar
