Idle Merikans Pickin contest Week 11

[RageWizard]

Just 5 Idol contestants left, and so thankfully just a few weeks left for this contest to go. Am erican Idol will be on Tuesday 8:00 PM est, for the sing- a- long portion, then on Wednesday 9:00 PM est they will get rid of the Aarron kelly dude, hopefully. Altough I really would like Mr. Kelly to hit the road, so I can ensure a profit from this contest, it isn't up to me, so don't let that persuade your particular choice for going home this week. Some of yous have had recent hits with your longevity contestants hitting the road, so I would like to remind you that you can replace them if you would like. I will check last weeks thread and forward the choices that have been already mentioned, and after this week, I will give a breakdown as to all the ways all of you can win this thing, sort of like in the NFL during week 12 when this team has to beat that team, and those 2 teams have to tie, and John Madden has to eat a turducken for lunch on the day after Boxing Day in Canada, shit like that.

So good luck to everyone!

[Enigma]

Michael Lynche

[Bread]

I think I'm about shot, bowing out.

Thanks for throwing the contest using your own prize money Rager. Good stuff. GL to those in the hunt.

[Rubyn]

How can someone quit when they picked one of the potential winners a long time ago. Granted, I haven't seen the graphs for a while, but didn't Bread pick ML to win like.....months and months ago?

[Rubyn]

I pick Aaron Kelly to leave and replace my Siobhan loser with Michael Lynche.

[The HOFF]

Casey James.

[Bread]

A Kelly go home.

[RageWizard]

How can someone quit when they picked one of the potential winners a long time ago. Granted, I haven't seen the graphs for a while, but didn't Bread pick ML to win like.....months and months ago?

Yeah, the Bread has been on the Michael Lynche mob band wagon for 5 weeks already, and he is the only one on that bandwagon. If he can get rid of Bowersox and that Casey dude in the next couple of weeks, Bread actually has a chance to pull this out in dramatic fashion. taking avery quick look at the standings, the longer Bowersox and Casey are in this thing, the more it favors Sportsgirl33. Actually she can almost go on autopilot if those 2 are left in the end. Sadie can catch Sporto however by picking the eliminees at a better rate than sporto, and by getting the winner right at the end while sporto would need to get it wrong. I will go over all the scenarios after this weeks scoring, and before next week's singing.

[RageWizard]

As I look at the standings again, I can see 5 people with a decent shot at winning depending on which way things go. There are around 3 others that have long shots if things get wierd with who they let go, and a few who are almost hopeless at this time. Oddly enough however, it has more to do with how long your longevity picks have been active, and not really how many points you currently have.

[Bread]

I'm so nervous!

[Enigma]

I'll stick with my picks to go all the way.

pick to get boot: Aaron Kelly

[RageWizard]

Awesome, Aaron Kelly hit the road, and thus ensuring me that I actually make money after all of my efforts for this contest. Now All I need is for Lee to win the entire thing, and my profits will be maximized. Thanks to all involved, and I will have the lastest scores up soon with what has to happen for you to win.

[RageWizard]

OK, heres how the scoring looks.

[RageWizard]

The pareto of everything

[RageWizard]

The standings in a bar chart.

[RageWizard]

So I started to break down what has to happen for people to win and here are some of the results:

Athosmr, Bananas, Immortality, Bread, and Hybrid, can not make enough points to win even if the leaders fell off the earth. Thanks for playing and hopefully you will have better luck next year.

Robyn, all you need is for the contestants to be eliminated in this exact order: Crystal Bowersox, Casey James, Lee DeWyze, and have the winner to be Michael Lynche. You have to make every selection right from here on out, including the next American Idol, and while all of this is going on, you need Sportsgirl33 and Enigma to only participate this week but not be able to choose who is getting the boot. Sportsgirl33 and Enigma then need to fall off the face of the earth and not even participate for you to win.

I didn't really go over all of the scenarios for everyone aterwards because of the many permutations that are still possible but:

Skyflake, and The Hoff: The sooner Casey James gets the boot the better it is for you.

Sadie and the Meangirl, you can catch the leaders just by making correct choices to go home and by having the American Idol selected correctly while Enigma and sportsgirl get them wrong.

Enigma, eventually Casey James will have to eliminated before Lee Dewyze.

[Enigma]

thanks rage

[Bread]

Thanks sir.